By Peter Navarro
If China shooting down an old satellite in a ballistic missile test isn’t a shot heard ’round the world, it darn well should be.
The question every politician and consumer of cheap Chinese goods should be asking themselves is this: Just what kind of military monster are we creating by supporting the Chinese economy?
The answer: a dangerous monster.
While the Chinese economy has been growing at a white-hot pace of 10% per year, its rate of military spending is growing almost twice as fast. It is increasingly clear China wants to do far more than protect its borders.
Most provocatively, China seeks to expand its military reach deep into traditional areas of American influence,from the oil rich Persian Gulf to the natural resource-rich countries of Africa and Latin America.
China also seeks hegemony over the vast petroleum- and mineral-rich northern border countries of Central Asia. This vast area helps keep Europe energized and European factories humming.
Predictably, China denies any plans for world domination. It’s official party line is that China’s “defense policy is purely defensive in nature.”
The facts suggest otherwise.
Consider the recent satellite shootdown. Earlier this month, Beijing confirmed for the first time that it has tested a satellite-destroying weapon.
The international satellite grid is the lifeblood of the global economy and European and U.S. security and anti-terrorism efforts. Any country,particularly one with a nuclear capability such as China,that can threaten the grid represents a serious threat.
What is particularly troublesome here is that China has been working with Cuba and Brazil for years to develop sophisticated satellite tracking technologies and electronic eavesdropping capabilities that can be used in time of war to knock U.S. satellites out of the sky.
The Chinese threat is all the more serious because China has established itself as the de facto arms dealer to rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea. Imagine Tehran getting a crate of Chinese missiles capable of hitting not just Tel Aviv but the deep space eyes and ears of Israeli defense forces.
Space is hardly the only frontier China seeks to conquer. Another big project is developing a deepwater navy. With the help of Russian technology and advisers, China seeks to run a string of aircraft carrier groups around the world capable of challenging the world’s only other deepwater navy. Why would China want to go gun to gun with the U.S. on the high seas?
Close to home, there is the “renegade province” of Taiwan. U.S. naval forces twice have rebuffed Chinese moves on Taiwan. This would be a lot more difficult for the U.S.,and a lot more dangerous for the world,if China had comparable warships to go along with the close to 1,000 missiles now pointed at Taiwan.
There is also growing tension between China and Japan. While commerce continues apace between the two countries, China repeatedly provokes Japan militarily. In 2004, China snuck a submerged submarine into Japanese waters. In a dispute over oil rights in the East China Sea, China dispatched two Russian-built warships to harass Japanese drilling teams. Japan now routinely scrambles its fighters to intercept suspected Chinese spy satellites. Just last October, a Chinese sub surfaced near a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group and almost ignited a firefight.
As concerns mount China will eclipse Japan as an economic power and attempt to muscle Japan out of the way in its quest for markets and energy. There is a growing view within Japan that it will have no other choice but to remilitarize and officially “go nuclear.” How do you spell “escalation”?
Perhaps the ultimate danger of an ultramodern Chinese military is that to China itself. The apparent preeminence of the Communist Party notwithstanding, there is growing tension between the government and the military over both foreign and domestic policy issues.
A coup that put the military in firm control would dramatically ratchet up world tensions, particularly if that military was equipped with weapons and technologies that are comparable to what once was the world’s only superpower.
Ever since Sept. 11, 2001, the Bush administration has been thoroughly distracted by events in the Middle East and the war on terrorism. Since the terrorist attacks, an equally grave economic and military threat has arisen in the East. It’s time both the U.S. and Europe paid far more attention.
Navarro is a business professor at the University of California, Irvine, and author of “The Coming China Wars.”
