It’s a week of nervous anticipation for OC government: More examination is expected of the county investment portfolio, which holds about $830 million, or 14% of its assets, in subprime-tainted structured investment vehicles. And the semi-annual property taxes come due, giving officials a look at how falling home prices will impact government budgets …
Continuing the frightening note, the 30th anniversary of Chapman U’s celebrated economic forecast, cast large on the OC Performing Arts Center stage, was a Jim & Essie Rocky Horror Picture Show. Jim Doti and Essie Adibi predicted a local recession,two straight quarters of job losses,and an 8% drop in the median home price here next year. Adibi suggested home prices would continue to drop another 20% or so in the following three years …
Chapman’s newest economic superstar, Nobel Prize winner Vernon Smith, and wife Candace took time out from unpacking their moving boxes to join the VIP luncheon that preceded the forecast. Smith personally ratified the bearish real estate outlook: “We’re leasing for a year.” Smith said their Orange landlord removed the For Sale sign the day before they signed their lease. Smith said homes aren’t moving because buyers are betting prices will fall and sellers are betting on a rebound. They’re “playing that game,” said Smith, an expert on game theory. “They can’t both be right” …
Sitting front and center at the luncheon, and absorbing the unsettling forecast: homebuilder William Lyon, who has endured the best and worst of times in real estate. The general’s sense of things to come: “Another tough year” …
And a first encounter at the Chapman luncheon: OC Supe John Moorlach seated alongside ICN Pharmaceuticals founder Milan Panic. Moorlach said Panic recognized him and complimented his performance in office, and they discussed “giving back” to the community and their shared status as immigrants. Panic came to this country as a young adult after resisting Nazis and escaping Communists in Yugoslavia; Moorlach arrived with his Dutch parents at age 4 …
Time with the Vespa and surfboard are on hold: Newly retired The Irvine Company exec Larry Thomas has discovered “a gopher in the garden”,cancer. His USC medical “dream team” is set for surgery, radiation and chemo. All of which has added poignancy to Thomas’ philosophical missives: “It reminds me of the credit card commercial: World class cancer hospital, $200,000. Nationally prominent head and neck surgeon, $150,000. Prayers from your friends and family, priceless” … The consul generals of the People’s Republic of China (Zhang Yun), Malaysia (Ahmad Anwar Adnan) and Pakistan (Syed Ibne Abbas) address the World Affairs Council of OC dinner Wednesday at the Irvine Marriott …
Pretty as a picture: The driving range at the reopened, even-more-sumptuous-than-before Pelican Hill.
