March 2: Battle of the Bonds
By HOWARD FINE
Orange County voters are set to face one of the more unusual and unpredictable slates of ballot measures when they go to the polls on March 2.
The biggest of them: bond measures totaling a record $27 billion. There’s the $15 billion “recovery bond” measure being promoted by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, as well as a $12.3 billion statewide school bond.
These measures are paired with two propositions that would change the way the state draws up its budgets. Proposition 56 would lower the legislative approval threshold for a budget from 67% to 55% and impose penalties for late budgets.
Proposition 58, which is tied to the $15 billion recovery bond, would require a balanced budget,with exceptions for emergencies,and require funds be set aside each year for reserves. Schwarzenegger also is pushing Proposition 58.
Recent surveys suggest that the ballot measures are in trouble, though much of the polling took place before the ad campaigns focused people’s attention on the election.
Meanwhile, Republican voters will be choosing a candidate to take on U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, the Democratic incumbent. Four Republicans are vying: frontrunner and former Secretary of State Bill Jones, former U.S. Treasurer and Huntington Park Mayor Rosario Marin, former Los Altos Hills Mayor Toni Casey, and former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian.
Throw in a new set of rules for voting in primary elections, some confusion over new ballot machines and the lingering effects of a landmark recall election just four months ago, and the stage is set for a highly volatile election.
“You have so many cross-currents working here,” said Michael Alvarez, professor of political science at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. “You need to look at how voters will react to more than $27 billion in bonds and at two budget-related measures that are highly confusing to even veteran government watchers. Also, there’s the prospect that the election will be more of a referendum on the performance of Gov. Schwarzenegger than anything else.”
It’s possible that in California, unlike other states that have held primaries, the ballot measures may drive turnout more than candidate races, said Hal Dash, president of Cerrell Associates, an Los Angeles-based public relations and political consulting firm.
Democrats have turned out in nearly record numbers in other states holding primaries this year. But that largely was because multiple candidates each were trying to get out the vote. On March 2, California will be one of 10 states holding primary elections on what’s dubbed “Super Tuesday,” so the two remaining major candidates,John Kerry and John Edwards,won’t be able to spend as much time in California as in preceding states.
“I would expect turnout to be only slightly higher than it would be in a completely uncontested primary,” Alvarez said
The ballot measure that stands to gain the most by a boost in Democrat turnout would be Proposition 55, the statewide school bond measure. But that proposal was dealt a setback when the Legislature and Schwarzenegger placed the $15 billion deficit recovery bond measure on the same ballot.
As a result, Proposition 55 was just shy of a majority in the Public Policy Institute of California poll released last week, garnering 49% support. A California Field Poll released in mid-January showed 52% support.
The bond measure earmarks about $1 billion for OC schools and colleges, including $50 million for a new business school building at California State University, Fullerton.
The biggest ad war is being fought over Proposition 56, the measure that would reduce legislative approval for a budget from the current two-thirds to 55%.
Labor and other groups traditionally aligned with Democrats are pumping big dollars in support of the initiative, which they see as a way to prevent future gridlocks in the Legislature.
Industry groups are putting hundreds of thousands of dollars each into the effort to defeat the measure because they fear it will make it easier to raise taxes.
Proposition 56 fell short of getting majority support in last week’s Public Policy Institute poll, with just 41% support. That’s only slightly better than the January Field Poll’s 37%, but 24% of those surveyed remain undecided.
Proposition 57, the so-called deficit recovery bond measure, also faces an uphill battle, with barely one-third of those polled saying they would support it. The Public Policy poll showed support barely has moved in the past month, despite Schwarzenegger stumping for the measure.
There is no organized opposition to Proposition 57, which would close last year’s $11 billion accumulated deficit and the $4 billion hole created when Schwarzenegger repealed the car tax in October.
But State Treasurer Phil Angelides has spoken out against it. Last week he introduced an alternative proposal that called for raising taxes on the highest income earners.
Proposition 57 is directly tied to Proposition 58: Both must pass if either is to take effect. Proposition 58, which emerged from a compromise between Schwarzeneg-ger and the Legislature, requires the state to pass a balanced budget.
But the requirement is not ironclad. A deficit can be incurred in the event of a “fiscal emergency.” It would also establish a reserve requirement as a hedge against future deficits.
In the two statewide polls, Proposition 58 had the highest levels of support: 49% to 57%. With no campaign being waged against it, the measure is viewed as the most likely to pass among the four statewide initiatives.
Locally, three school districts,Huntington Beach Union High School District, Orange Unified School District and Saddleback Valley Unified School District,are asking voters to their areas to approve more than $600 million in bonds among them.
The act of voting itself may be just as crucial to the results as the content of the ballot. This time, two sets of circumstances that could confuse voters are converging: a complex set of primary voting rules and new voting machines.
In 1996, California voters approved an open primary, in which voters of any party registration could vote in any party’s primary. That’s what voters were able to do in the last presidential primary in 2000.
But the Democratic and Republican national committees saw this as a threat to their authority and challenged the measure in court. In 2000, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the right of political parties to limit the choosing of presidential candidates to members of their own parties.
But a new primary law allowed the 16% of California voters who aren’t registered with any party to vote in any party’s primary, so long as that party gave its approval.
So, next week, non-partisan voters can request ballots for the Democratic, Republican or American Independent parties. But they will not be able to cast ballots for candidates in the Green, Libertarian, Natural Law and Peace & Freedom parties.
In practical terms, this means non-partisan voters will be able to vote in all the primary nominating elections generating headlines.
Finally, there are new voting machines. The county is using an electronic voting system known as eSlate made by Austin, Texas-based Hart InterCivic Inc.
The eSlate is about the size of a legal pad and looks like an oversized handheld electronic organizer.
You scroll through the ballot on and screen and vote using buttons at the bottom of the device, including a red one that reads “cast ballot.”
Fine is a staff writer for the Los Angeles Business Journal.
