Next year could see it all.
Predictions for Orange County’s economy call for declines, gains or little change from a year earlier, depending on the industry.
The lucky ones: exports, which are seen growing about 10% next year thanks to the weak dollar; retail sales, which are seen growing about 2%; and technology, where gains from 2007 are predicted, albeit at a slower pace.
Healthcare, manufacturing and tourism are seen holding steady in 2008,something few in those industries are complaining about.
Real estate, finance and government could have it tougher. Many of the trends that drove the second half of 2007 are seen carrying over: continued mortgage layoffs, rising bad loans and, for governments, the prospect of spending cuts as the property tax surge of the housing boom fades.
Economists see slow going to different degrees. Those at the University of California, Los Angeles, and California State University, Fullerton, say the county isn’t likely to fall into recession,defined as two straight quarters of job losses.
Their counterparts at Chapman University say otherwise, predicting a brief, mild recession in the first half of next year.
We look at nine key parts of the county’s economy and what to expect in 2008 in our annual forecast issue. It starts with what to expect for technology.
,Michael Lyster
