Advocates’ Weapons Include Lawyers, Politicians, Measure A, Cleanup Costs
It is the darkest of hours for proponents of a commercial airport at El Toro.
They lost the Measure F battle by a 67%-33% vote. Orange County CEO Jan Mittermeier, czar of the El Toro airport planning process, barely hung onto her job. Funding of the airport planning has been halted, at least temporarily. Some airport fans are throwing in the towel.
Opponents of the airport are taunting pro-airport supervisors that they will lose their seats because their support for an airport is out of touch with voters. These opponents are telling wavering airport supporters to wake up and smell the coffee.
“The airport plan is not dead but it’s on a downhill death spiral,” said Irvine Mayor Christina Shea. “It’s clearly losing momentum. The public support is not there anymore.”
Meg Waters, spokesperson for the anti-airport effort, is even more confident:
“The airport is dead.”
No question, public perception of the airport’s chances has swung markedly in the wake of Measure F. But is the airport really a goner?
A review of the landscape shows a lot of carnage, but the pro-airport side still packs punch and holds many of the legal and political weapons, both on the local and federal levels. The diehards are for the most part laying low and licking their wounds, but they are not yet ready to abandon the airship.
Demand Still Exists
“The things that led me to the decision that we need an airport are still in existence,” said OC Supervisor Cynthia Coad. “The main thing is that in my dealings with the top businesses in Orange County, they need to get their people and products in and out of Orange County.”
“George Argyros is still in the fight,” said Bruce Nestande, a close aide to the businessman who has funded over $3 million in three different elections on the airport. “He didn’t join this fight just to drop out halfway through.”
One clue that the fight isn’t over is to watch what the airport opponents are doing. While some of the airport opponents are claiming the airport is dead, they are also not shutting down their funding for the anti-airport effort.
The city of Irvine, which spent $7.7 million this fiscal year, is expected to spend $2.5 million this next fiscal year, according to Irvine Mayor Shea.
The El Toro Reuse Planning Authority, an anti-airport group composed of eight South County cities, spent $6 million this fiscal year. It is expected to decide within a few weeks what it will spend in the coming fiscal year.
Paul Eckles, a former city manager of Inglewood who has been crucial in shaping the anti-airport debate, said he is expecting to stay in his position as executive director of ETRPA.
“It’s not over until it’s over,” said Eckles. “We had a great victory but we’re not going to relax until some combination of the airport proponents , the supervisors, Newport Beach and George Argyros , stop pushing for an airport.”
Planning in Holding Pattern
In the short run, the county’s supervisors have shut down the planning for the airport and completion of its environmental impact report, saying that it’s not clear whether Measure F allows such expenditures.
Los Angeles Superior Court Judge S. James Otero is expected to rule on this issue as soon as this week. The judge is expected to allow completion of the nearly finished EIR.
But even if the judge rules that the measure prevents planning expenditures for an airport, it’s not a death sentence for airport proponents. Much of the preliminary planning for the airport has been completed, as the county released its airport master plan last December. (The airport is budgeted to cost $1 billion for starters and another $1.7 billion over 15 years).
Airport supporters are confident that they’ll win in the court on the broader challenge to Measure F’s constitutionality. Measure F requires the county government win two-thirds approval from a countywide vote before it can build an airport, a jail or a toxic waste dump. Judge Otero is expected to begin hearings within a few months.
Also, airport proponents have noted that Measure F did not repeal Measure A, the 1994 ballot initiative that authorized county’s planning for an airport at El Toro.
“Measure A says that El Toro shall be used for airport purposes. That is the law in Orange County,” said Barbara Lichman, an attorney for the Airport Working Group, which is challenging Measure F in court.
Appeals Expected
Whichever side wins this argument, the other side is expected to appeal and the arguments on Measure F’s constitutionality are expected to last for at least a couple of years.
A fourth vote on the airport is also one of cards of airport proponents. But a vote in November has run into surprising resistance from airport opponents, who said voters are tired of the issue.
Airport opponents have said the Measure F vote was a clear repudiation of an airport at El Toro. But airport supporters are not convinced that it was the airport alone that caused the widespread defeat.
“I feel that a vote with one issue is important. Just up or down on the airport,” said Coad. “If the public really doesn’t want an airport, let’s just move on.”
Nestande, who ran the campaign against Measure F, said his post-election polling indicated that two-thirds of the voters who supported Measure F did so because they want to vote on the issues or that they liked Measure F’s requirement for a two-thirds majority.
“Only one-third of Measure F’s support was from people opposed to an airport,” said Nestande.
Thus, some in the pro-airport camp feel that a simple majority of voters could still be assembled to rescind Measure F or to defeat an attempt to rescind Measure A.
Airport proponents will also soon be able to tap into the White House. Both presidential candidates have strong roots to factions in the pro-airport camp.
Argyros, has held a couple of fundraisers that have generated nearly $2 million for Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush. Argyros recently hosted an event at Chapman University featuring Bush’s father, the former president.
Democrat candidate Al Gore is closely tied to organized labor, which has signed a project labor agreement with the county that its members would build most of the airport. No such agreement exists for a non-aviation use of El Toro.
The pro-airport supervisors have been heavily criticized for cutting the deal with organized labor, and many observers believe it caused a conservative backlash that helped to erode support for the airport in the Measure F election. But county officials privately say that since the agreement has been signed, they’ve been getting much more cooperation from the federal government.
Furthermore, Linda Sanchez, sister of Democratic congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, is in charge of the Orange County Central Labor Council. Loretta Sanchez has leaned in favor of an airport and earlier this year, she voiced opposition to Measure F.
Statewide Help
The pro-airport side has also been getting some statewide help. Brett Granlund (R-Yucaipa) has introduced AB 2078, which is designed to prevent cities from having voter registration drives, as Irvine and other South County cities did in the months before Measure F ballot. Michael Schroeder, the former chairman of the state’s GOP, has filed a lawsuit challenging Irvine on its voter registration drives. These measures are aimed to prevent South County cities from spending lavishly on stopping the El Toro airport, a source of contention among airport proponents.
Then, too, airport proponents say that the airport plan will look better as alternative non-aviation uses, such as the Millennium Plan, now come under closer scrutiny. In particular, it is widely believed that most or all of the non-aviation alternatives will require far larger expenditures of taxpayer money to implement.
Also, the Measure F vote could be a wakeup call for the Navy and the Federal Aviation Administration, which might become more assertive in pushing an airport plan.
One signal is that the Navy wants to unload the base quickly and cheaply, which would come about if the base is turned over for an airport. Originally, the base was expected to be given to the county in December 1999, but now the projected turnover is early next year. The Navy is spending approximately $5 million annually to maintain the 4,700-acre base, even though it’s not using it.
The turnover could be delayed even further by a dispute over toxic pollutants still on the base. If the base is not turned over for use as an airport, it’s expected to cost the Navy perhaps as much as $200 million more to clean up for a more people-intensive use.
“It will have to be cleaned up to levels much more acceptable to us than that of an airport,” said Mayor Shea. “Originally, the federal government estimated the cleanup cost at $150 million. We did our own independent study and it will take $350 million.”
That argument could play for the pro-airport side, which has contended that a non-aviation use would trigger cleanup and other costs that might have to be borne by OC taxpayers, instead of by the Navy.
Signal From FAA
Another signal is from the FAA . The FAA’s own demand forecast predicted that aviation demand in Southern California will double in the next 20 years. The FAA recently issued a letter saying it agreed with the county’s forecast on demand.
The FAA is expected to weigh in within a few months on the safety of the runways. County planners have said they’ve consulted with FAA officials on their proposed flight paths and have designed the runways according to FAA safety standards. County planners said they believe the FAA will agree with them on the proposed flight patterns. If the FAA agrees with the county, this could alleviate some of the criticisms that the runways are not safe and provide a much needed boost to the county.
Airport proponents acknowledge that El Toro is damaged right now. But they also understand why South County wants to present the airport as dead.
“If they can get away with the spin, it’s over,” Nestande said. “If they can make people believe that Measure F equals termination of the airport option, that’s a cheap victory.”n
