The convergence of computer science, genetics, and nanotechnology will shape our future, determine the wealth of nations and profoundly change our lives.
Currently, computers and the Internet are the most dominant technology news stories. But the Genome Project , the identifying and patenting of protein functions,will awaken biotech from its nuclear winter. By 2005, when practical results start to flow from the completion of the Genome, I expect to see “.com” replaced by “.bio.”
Eventually, with the invention of nanomachines, device physics will take the spotlight away from genetics/biotech. Nanomachines are molecular sized machines that will do specialized functions. These nano-robots, called “micro-bots,” could be injected into our bloodstream to assist us physically and mentally.
Each of these three key technologies will produce significant advances. For example, computer scientists will eventually exhaust the capacity of silicon chips when Moore’s Law breaks down,around 2010. A new type of computer could result from the convergence of machines and life. Molecular computers, using organic molecules sandwiched between etched metal grids, promise greatly improved capabilities. Even more intriguing is the current work of growing living neural tissue on silicon chips. Silicon computers are excellent at crunching numbers, but very slow and poor at pattern recognition. Our brains are excellent at quick pattern recognition, but very poor at computation. The marriage of silicon and living neural tissue promises capabilities that outstrip both man and machine.
The cloning of animals has received much news coverage and captured the public’s attention. Yet it is impossible to overstate the importance of this Human Genome Project. Its completion is the start of a new paradigm in biomedical science. It will eventually be seen as far more significant than the Internet. Decoding the genome is the “great moon race” of this century. The challenge is to extract value from the genome. The new field of genetic informatics is already developing. These patents will create enormous wealth. Genes are the “raw materials” of the 21st century, just like fossil fuels were for the Industrial Age. Eventually, the press will decry the power of the genetic-industrial complex.
Each of the three key technologies will produce important developments. However, startling payoffs will flow from the overlap of the three technologies. I call this overlap the “sweet spot” of inventions.
Among nations competing in the knowledge economy sweet spot, the U.S. is clearly the overall winner, with Western Europe coming in second and Asia a disappointment. In addition to these new knowledge technologies, efficient capital markets and a strong entrepreneurial culture are also required for success. Again, the U.S. is the leader. California’s Bay Area and Southern California’s “Tech Coast” are extremely well positioned to succeed.
Three examples of future sweet-spot inventions are the Deus Machine, the People Reader and the Artificial White Corpuscle.
The Deus Machine requires a massive genomic database, an artificial intelligence computer, a bio-compiler and an automated DNA synthesizer and/or gene splicer. The Deus Machine will be used to produce designer creatures through point-and-click genetic engineering. Genetic reprogramming opens a Pandora’s box of opportunities and problems. It will be a powerful engine that could drive the economy of its inventor nation. The Deus Machine will also have a dark side,unintended consequences could easily overshadow the benefits of genetic engineering.
The second sweet-spot invention is the People Reader, which is a handheld device that has a real- time DNA lab on a chip. When you touch the device’s chip reader, it analyzes your DNA. Your DNA code is sent via wireless link to a national DNA database for quick search and match. Your photograph and complete history are then returned to the handheld unit for display. Law enforcement agencies will be very interested in the People Reader. Credit card readers will be replaced by finger readers. You will no longer need passports, drivers’ licenses, I.D. cards, credit cards, etc. Wallet makers will go out of business. This technology will find many applications, such as analyzing a prospective mate. Kiosks in shopping centers could analyze a boyfriend’s or girlfriend’s DNA and predict their medical future and your offspring’s characteristics.
The Artificial White Corpuscle is the third example of a sweet-spot invention derived from the three technologies. It will be a molecular sized “nanomachine,” which is designed to seek out and destroy certain viruses. This miracle of device physics obviously depends heavily on extensive data mining of genetic information of the target virus. Analysis and strategies to locate and destroy the virus will be programmed into the Artificial White Corpuscle. The AIDS and other viruses that destroy or resist our natural white cells will be obvious targets for these new artificial cells. It could be that these artificial nanomachines will save us from a doomsday virus, natural or manmade, that is yet to plague the human race.
As man uses these technologies to make the leap from observer to programmer of nature, he will affect both great good and evil. Some of these inventions could have unintended and profoundly negative outcomes. On the bright side, we can expect these inventions to help reduce diseases and genetic defects, increase life expectancy, feed the world’s growing population, and take computing to new levels as life and machine merge. It is exciting to realize that the US,especially California ,is poised to dominate sweet-spot inventions and the resulting knowledge economy of this century.
Kenney is managing partner of the La Jolla-based Shepherd Fund, a venture capital fund focused on companies in Orange and San Diego counties. He is one of the featured speakers at Orange County Treasurer John Moorlach’s conference, “Orange County Finances: 2000 and Beyond,” this Thursday at the DoubleTree Hotel in Costa Mesa. Call (714) 834-6143 for conference information.
