Chapman University is predicting a national recession with the first decline in jobs locally in five years in 2008.
Economists at the school see a brief downturn,with a decline in the national economy in first and second quarters, and then a pickup in the second half.
For the year, Chapman sees the national economy growing 0.9%, driven by growth in the second half.
For Orange County, Chapman predicts a 0.2% decline in employment here next year, the first overall loss in jobs since 2002.
The county could lose 2,400 jobs next year, according to Chapman.
The prediction is based on the running trend in employment in the later half of 2007, in which job growth has ground to a halt.
The county generated 500 jobs in the third quarter, statistically flat from a year earlier.
For 2007, Chapman sees a 0.5% gain, or about 7,000 jobs, down from earlier forecasts of about 17,000.
The loss of mortgage and construction jobs, which once fueled the county’s economy, are to blame, according to Chapman economists.
The fear is that financial and construction job losses eventually will lead to a total shrinkage of the workforce.
Housing prices in OC are seen falling by 8.1% next year, according to Chapman. This year, the school sees housing prices ending the year down 1.8% from 2006.
