The county won’t likely start gaining jobs again until the middle of next year, according to economists at Chapman University.
On Wednesday Chapman economists James Doti and Esmael Adibi gave their national and local quarterly forecast from Orange County Hilton/Costa Mesa.
An increase in jobs won’t happen until after a rebound in the national economy, which the economists predict will happen by the end of this year.
Government investment in banks as well as an economic stimulus package to help consumer spending will help the national economy right itself, Doti said.
“It takes awhile before employment picks up,” he said.
Jobs will be lost in the first half of next year, with a turnaround in the second half. In all, Chapman expects the county to lose nearly 2,000 jobs next year.
This is after it will lose about 45,740 jobs, a 3.1% drop, this year, they said.
“The second quarter of this year is the worst we’re going to see in terms of job losses,” Adibi said.
A recovery in local housing prices won’t likely happen until the third quarter of next year, according to the forecast.
Further job losses and higher unemployment will keep home prices down despite better affordability and a diminished supply of new homes weighing in, Adibi said.
Next year the median price of a home should increase about 1.6% in the county, according to the forecast.
But higher-priced homes will likely suffer next year despite a bottoming of the overall market, Adibi added.
If the economic forecast were accurate it would mark 38 months of recession, the longest and deepest since World War II.
So far, this recession has lasted 24 months.
The recession in the early 1990s lasted 36 months. The one in 2001 lasted 10 months.
