Post-election polls clearly show that voters were fed up with the Biden-Harris record on immigration. They apparently viewed the millions of undocumented immigrants surging through chaotic southern border crossings as a disaster brought about by a weak administration out of touch with the mainstream public. During the presidential campaign, the Republican candidate Donald Trump was increasingly viewed as a take-charge leader who had the chutzpah to not only protect our nation’s borders but also deport millions of undocumented people already living here.
No question, the flow of documented and undocumented immigrants to the U.S. rose sharply during the Biden administration. As shown in Chart 1, immigration hit almost 3 million by 2024. During the first Trump presidency from 2017-2020, average annual immigration was 680,000. That increased to an average annual inflow of 1.8 million during Biden’s 2021-2024 presidency. This bulge in immigration soured the public’s perceptions of immigration. In 2020, 28% of Americans supported a decrease in immigration. Four years later, in 2024, that percentage increased to 55%.
But where’s the beef?
Although authorized and unauthorized immigration surged over the last three years, the total population, including new immigrants as reported by the Bureau of Census, increased from 332 million in 2021 to 340 million in 2024, an average annual increase of 0.8%.
That’s actually lower than the average annual increase of 1.1% from 151 million in 1950 to 332 million in 2021.
To understand why the recent immigration bulge isn’t reflected in total population growth, one needs to also look at the natural increase (births minus deaths) in population. As shown in Chart 2, the natural increase in population plummeted from 1.5 million in 2011 to 0.5 million in 2024. Although it has recovered somewhat since the COVID-19 trough in 2021, the natural increase in population (births minus deaths) is about one-third of what it was in 2011.
In 2024, when the supposed disaster of almost 2.8 million immigrants entered the country, the natural increase in the population was only about 500,000. The resulting increase of 3.3 million (2.8 million + 0.5 million) raised the total population of the U.S. from 336.8 million to 340.1 million, a gain of about 1%, roughly in line with historical averages. If it weren’t for immigration, the population increase would have been only 0.15%. It turns out that the bulge in immigration during the Biden years offset the sharp drop in the birth rate. Arguably, it was a blessing in disguise.
Some might claim that all those documented and undocumented new immigrants pulled down worker wages. In fact, median price-adjusted weekly earnings per worker increased from 2022 to 2024 at an average annual rate of 1.1%. That compares to a lower average boost of 0.8% between 2011 to 2020. Instead of all those immigrants pushing down per-worker real wages, they increased more than the historical norm.
When all those immigrants entered the country from 2021 to 2024, the unemployment rate actually decreased from 5.4% in 2021 to 4.0% in 2024. The average annual unemployment rate over the 2011 to 2020 period was 6.1%.
President Trump’s pronouncements would have us believe that the hike in immigration during the Biden years led to a significant surge in the nation’s crime rate. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the average number of total “violent victimizations” per 1,000 persons age 12 or older was 21.5 from 2011 to 2020 versus a lower 20.8 from 2021 to 2023. Chart 3 shows the rate of various types of crime victimization was generally lower from 2021 to 2023 when immigration increased rapidly.
President Trump blamed the rapid inflation that occurred during the Biden administration on the surge of undocumented immigrants. That, however, doesn’t square with the fact that just as documented and undocumented immigration increased sharply from 2021 to 2024, inflation by that time was on the wane. If one wants to start playing the inflationary blame game, one need look no further than the Federal Reserve’s 25% increase in the money supply in 2020. As Milton Friedman said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
Another point to consider is that immigrants help subsidize the Social Security system. Immigrants, on average, pay more in Social Security taxes than the benefits they receive. Immigrant workers pay the same Social Security tax rate as native-born Americans, but their benefits are lower since they have lower lifetime wages earned over fewer years.
As a result, their calculated benefits are lower. In addition, undocumented workers pay Social Security taxes. But unless there is a change in their immigration status, those benefits aren’t paid back. As a result, the taxes paid by undocumented workers often serve as a subsidy to the Social Security system. In 2022, for example, it’s been estimated that undocumented workers paid almost $26 billion in Social Security taxes.
One last point. The declining birth rate has reduced the ratio of workers to retirees in the nation. The latest Social Security projections indicate that there will be 2.5 workers per Social Security beneficiary in 2040 as compared to 5.0 in 1960 and 3.0 in 2023. By 2040, immigration is expected to be the sole driver of U.S. population growth. As a result of these demographic trends, it will be increasingly difficult to fund Social Security, Medicare and other public-sector activities for baby boomer retirees. The solution to this dilemma is to either convince people to have more babies or allow the Biden-era immigration levels to continue. The latter is obviously a more feasible option.
