The county is projected to add jobs at a small clip, see median home prices rise marginally and consumer spending improve slightly next year, according to a forecast Monday from Chapman University.
Economists at the university in Orange expect the county to generate 23,000 jobs in 2011, up 1.7%, with most of the growth coming from professional services industries such as healthcare, private education, leisure and hospitality and retail.
A strong recovery isn’t expected here as modest job gains in financial services aren’t expected to make up for the massive losses the sector took in the real estate crash and ensuing recession.
“It’s not going to be a huge rebound,” said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman who co-authored the report with university President James Doti.
More than 33,800 jobs were lost in the professional and business services sector since early 2007, but some of those jobs have been regained in the last year.
Professional and business services posted the largest yearly gain of any industry here, adding 9,600 jobs through October, according to the state Employment Development Department.
The forecast predicts unsold homes and continued foreclosures will dampen values in housing, a key segment here.
The issue is exacerbated with banks still holding millions of dollars of foreclosed properties on their books and some homeowners willing to take a loss on their home at sale.
“This could be a big negative for the housing market,” Adibi said.
Still, the forecast estimates a 3% rise in median resale, single-family home prices in 2011, with high-end homes sales skewing numbers.
On the supply side, permits for new housing are forecast to increase from an estimated 3,400 units to 3,900 units.
Retailers could be in line for some good news in 2011, as consumer spending and income growth should improve.
Taxable sales in Orange County are expected to jump 4.7% to $81.2 billion next year, the highest percentage increase in at least the past six years.
