Orange County will add jobs at a modest pace in nearly every sector despite a recent trim on the outlook for the local economy, according to a forecast from Chapman University.
Economists at the school in Orange expect the county to add 20,000 jobs in 2011, a gain of 1.5%.
The estimate is down about 3,000 jobs from the December outlook.
Some 30,000 new jobs are seen in 2012, up 2.2%.
“A little slower growth this year, but the pace should pick up next year,” said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman and a co-author of the report with Chapman President James Doti.
The two-year projection would push the county’s unemployment rate below 8% for the first time in more than two years. The 2011 outlook also would snap four consecutive years of employment losses.
Most of the growth will be in the professional and business, education and health services, as well as leisure and hospitality sectors.
The federal government is expected to lose jobs here as it deals with trillion-dollar annual budget deficits and growing national debt.
The gains elsewhere are expected to be relatively modest compared to losses across various industries during the recent recession.
More than 33,800 jobs were lost in the professional and business services sector between early 2007 and this year, when slow growth resumed.
The Chapman forecast predicts unsold homes and continued foreclosures will dampen values in housing, a key segment here.
The median resale price of a single-family home prices is projected to drop 4% in 2011 and see no appreciation in 2012. The revision falls short of December’s forecast of a 3% rise in home prices.
Adibi attributed the shift downward to high-end home sales that were lower than expected.
“The activity is still concentrating mostly around distressed properties,” he said. “Recovery in the housing market always takes time. We’re going to get mixed signals.”
The construction sector, which saw big employment losses during the downturn and has been a lingering sore spot in the recovery, is expected to increase spending about 6% in the next year.
“That’s where we see the good news—this sector is stabilizing,” Adibi said. “That was a major drag on our economy.”
Even though there’s an oversupply of homes here, house and apartment construction is expected to see a slight uptick, according the forecast.
Retailers also could be in line for good news the rest of this year and next, with consumer spending and income growth expected to improve.
Taxable sales in Orange County are expected to jump more than 6% in 2011 and 2012, the highest percentage increase in at least six years.
