Many industry watchers are projecting attendance decreases of 5% to 15% at most of Orange County’s annual conventions and tradeshows this year, even as the amount of conventions holds up.
After a sluggish 2009, when the meetings market was hampered by the general economic malaise, meeting planners and tradeshow organizers are expecting a slow climb back to full-capacity shows and robust hotel bookings.
“I think we’ll still see the aftereffects of 2009 this year with attendance,” said Brad Logsdon, director of sales and marketing at the Hilton Anaheim, OC’s largest hotel. “This year’s (slow bookings) seem almost like a hangover.”
Hotel rooms booked in advance also are expected to be down again this year as fewer people attend conventions or commute to closer shows.
And hotels are likely to see more people booking rooms at the last minute, according to market watchers.
That has pushed meeting planners to decrease the amount of rooms reserved in a room block, which often requires a certain amount of spots filled to secure a discount or avoid penalties.
“You had a lot of people who were burned in 2009 and ended up owing hotels a lot of money in performance damages and cancellation fees,” Logsdon said. “Now they are going back and scrubbing down the number of rooms blocked to reflect 2009’s results.”
But some hoteliers are seeing that start to change.
“At one point last year, I had over 20 files on my desk at any given time with clients looking to renegotiate 2010 plans,” Logsdon said. “At the moment I don’t have any on my desk, so that’s a good sign.”
Conventions, which industry watchers say saw a small overall dip in attendance in 2009, are expected to recover more quickly than hotels.
Commuter Conventions
Like last year, this year many companies and industries are planning smaller local shows that attract attendees who can drive to and from the show.
“They were coming to the conventions last year, but not staying at the hotel to save the cost of room,” Logsdon said.
Prior to 2008’s economic collapse, even local attendees would stay at hotels close to the convention center to go to networking and other after-convention events.
“Last year we almost threw history out the window,” Logsdon said. “In the past you could set your watch to how many came in, but 2009 was impossible to predict.”
One bright spot for the convention industry is the number of conventions planned for Anaheim this year.
There are 42 citywide conventions using multiple hotels set for Anaheim next year, compared to 43 in 2009.
There are a couple of big draws, including the annual International Music Products Association’s NAMM Show—Anaheim’s largest convention—as well as the Natural Products Expo West, a tradeshow featuring natural and organic products.
“I’m cautiously optimistic for another good meeting year,” said Mindy Abel, senior vice president of the Anaheim/Orange County Visitor & Convention Bureau.
Anaheim’s first big convention of 2010 is NAMM, which runs Thursday through Sunday and is for makers of musical instruments.
Many industry watchers feel it will set the tone for the next six months.
It drew about 80,000 people last January—about 5% fewer than a year earlier—at the height of the downturn.
Registration is down a little this year, but many are optimistic for a last minute pickup, similar to what the show saw last year.
“I really do think even though registration is down a bit that we’ll be OK,” Logsdon said.
NAMM and MD&M West, a medical design and man-
ufacturing tradeshow, remain some of the strongest for the city.
MD&M West drew more than 16,000 attendees last year, up about 5% from a year earlier, according to Canon Com-munications LLC, which produces the show.
“They are still the anchors of our whole citywide convention season,” Logsdon said.
For the most part, the recession hasn’t much changed the business of running a trade show.
“I don’t think the structure of the event is going to have changed a lot,” Abel said.
At most, exhibitors may downsize to smaller booths this year, according to Thomas Morton, convention center, sports and entertainment executive director for the city of Anaheim.
There are also signs of groups getting back into conventions this year.
“We’ve been hearing of a lot of groups who are afraid if they don’t get back into the thick of it in 2010, people will forget who they are,” Logsdon said.
New Draws
There also are a few new events that are expected to bring thousands to Anaheim in 2010, including the Photo Marketing Association’s consumer and trade shows (see story, page 23) and Major League Baseball’s 2010 All-Star Game.
The All-Star Game is coming to Angel Stadium of Anaheim in July.
The Hilton Anaheim and Sheraton Marriott plan to be the headquarters for the game, serving as the main hotels for officials, sponsors and media guests.
“We’re already sold out for the All-Star Game,” Logsdon said.
Not just the hotels stand to benefit—the convention center is holding a fan fest for the people drawn to the midseason exhibition game.
“That’s going to be a boon for our hotel and others,” said Robert Donahue, director of groups and conventions for the Disneyland Resort.
Two years ago, when the All-Star Game was held in New York, it brought nearly $150 million in business to the city.
Even in the midst of the downturn, the game brought an estimated $60 million to St. Louis in 2009.
“We’re looking to have a triple-digit number if possible given our proximity to the greater Los Angeles area,” Morton said.
