Orange County exports are expected to keep growing in 2011 even as the rate of increase pulls back a bit after a strong rebound this year.
Exports from the county are expected to grow by 6% to $18 billion next year, according to a projection by the Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies at California State University, Fullerton.
The rate of growth is expected to slow from 2010’s estimated 17% gain to $17.4 billion, according to Cal State Fullerton.
The rebound this year was “partially to do with a vibrant recovery in emerging economies and partly reflects a sharp reversal in the inventory cycle as firms restock,” said Mira Farka, an economics professor who co-authored the study of local exports based on federal data.
Others are more aggressive in their outlook for export growth next year.
Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic research at Chapman University in Orange, said he forecasts local exports to grow 10% in 2011.
He, too, sees a pullback in the rate of growth, down from an estimated 12% this year.
“This year was much better than last year,” he said. “But next year it will be slowing down a little bit.”
The biggest reason for the pullback, according to Adibi, is lower rates of growth in the economies of OC’s biggest export markets.
“Some of those economies will slow down,” Adibi said. “China is going to slow down in terms of growth, and the same with Taiwan and South Korea. They won’t go into recession. But they will grow at a slower rate.”
The dollar is likely to continue its downward slide against the euro and other currencies, according to Adibi.
A slumping dollar makes U.S. goods cheaper for foreign buyers. The dollar is off about 10% against major currencies in the past six months.
“We don’t see a big upturn in value for the dollar happening next year,” Adibi said. “We think it will decline somewhat against the currencies of our trading partners.”
Canada is expected to remain the county’s top trade partner in 2011, accounting for 14% of exports from local companies.
Mexico is expected to make up 11%.
China and Japan are projected to account for 9% each.
South Korea is expected to make up about 5%.
Some 40% of the county’s exports falls under two broad categories—transportation equipment and computers and electronic products.
Companies here are big exporters of tech goods, medical devices and related services. Other common shipments include chemicals, machinery, food, fabricated metal products, electrical equipment and appliances and products made from petroleum and coal, according to Cal State Fullerton.
Exports make up about 10% of the county’s $170 billion economy, Cal State Fullerton’s data showed.
Growth in exports is expected to pick up in 2012 with a 9% gain to $20 billion.
That’s roughly on par with 2008 export levels, which reached a record $19.7 billion.
