Irvine, Orange County’s business and education hub, saw an initial jump in coronavirus cases that until last week appeared to be decreasing, a trend that’s in line with other South County cities.
With a population of 280,202, the city saw its largest increase in new cases for the week ending March 19, when it reported 30 new cases.
The city had 101 new cases for the five weeks ending April 16; for the next five weeks ending May 21, new cases dropped to 58. There were 17 new cases reported for the week ending May 21, however, marking an uptick from prior weeks. The county did not respond by press time to an inquiry regarding the spike, or whether it was related to an isolated incident.
Irvine currently has reported nearly six cases per 10,000 residents, slightly lower than its neighboring city of Tustin, which has about 10 cases per 10,000 residents, and significantly lower than Santa Ana, which borders the city to the northwest, with 25 cases per 10,000 residents.
North County cities such as Anaheim and Santa Ana, which have a combined population of about 700,000, have been hot spots for the virus in the past month, as cities that initially saw higher increases, such as Irvine and South OC cities along the coast, have witnessed a drop in new cases.
Socioeconomic Factors
There were 873 new cases reported in the county in the past week, flat from the week prior, when there were 876 cases reported. This slight decline comes after weeks of increases; there were 699 new cases for the week ending May 7, and 566 for the week ending April 30.
Anaheim and Santa Ana had a combined total of about 366 new cases in the week ending May 21, representing nearly 40% of new cases countywide.
This surge coming from these cities and other North County regions, like Buena Park and Orange, has to do with population density and other lifestyle factors, according to Bernadette Boden-Albala, the newly appointed dean of the future public health school at the University of California-Irvine.
“We are still seeing a majority of new cases coming from lower socioeconomic areas in the county, while other cities are seeing decreases,” Boden-Albala said. “Transmission is much easier in denser cities, as well as areas with a large population of essential workers.”
How to Reopen
Testing for the county has slipped in the past week, with 1,515 tests done last week, down from 2,613 tests the week prior.
Boden-Albala, whose work with UCI during the pandemic—acting as the point person to track and analyze the spread of COVID-19 in OC—earned her a place in the Business Journal’s latest edition of the OC 50 (see page 28), notes that there has been an underutilization of the tests available, with some testing slots going unused.
“There was a cautious attitude toward testing in the beginning, with concerns over the county’s ability to test those most at risk and then have hospital capacity going forward, but we really avoided the surge in cases that was seen in other parts of the country like New York, and thankfully there wasn’t competition for hospital beds,” Boden-Albala said.
“Now, we need anyone who thinks they have coronavirus to go get tested, so they can know to isolate themselves.”
This is especially true for those cities seeing sharper increases, which could benefit from “a drill down on testing,” she said.
In order to take steps to reopen, fewer than 8% of residents are expected to test positive for coronavirus over a seven-day period. In the past week, about 8.2% of OC residents tested positive, up from 4.7% a week prior when more tests were conducted.
The county is also expected to show an increase in contact tracing, in which a public health employee works with coronavirus patients to determine and warn other potentially exposed individuals.
UCI is currently involved in this effort, recruiting and training people to work with the Orange County Health Care Agency to provide more tracers.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has recalled a prior benchmark he set, in which counties were expected to report zero deaths in 14 days. Orange County has had 32 new deaths for the week ending May 21, including 25 deaths from nursing facilities.
“I think as residents remain vigilant, wash their hands, stay home as much as possible, and the county continues to ramp up testing, we will start to move into phase two of reopening,” Boden-Albala said.
“Over the next couple weeks, I’m optimistic we will start to see a downward trend in cases and deaths.”
