Gov. Gavin Newsom has conditioned his plan to restart California’s shuttered economy on the state’s ability to flatten the coronavirus curve for a few more weeks.
“Let’s not make the mistake of pulling the plug too early, as much as we all want to,” Newsom said.
In Orange County, where there has been hardly any curve at all, some officials and business advocates say the stay-at-home order has already run its course.
“This lockdown cannot end soon enough … We have to get back to work,” said OC state Sen. John Moorlach, recently appointed to a special budget committee overseeing the state’s COVID-19 spending (for more on Moorlach’s views, see page 61).
“Of course we want to be up and running,” said Mike Lyster, spokesperson for the city of Anaheim, which is losing close to an estimated $1 million in tax revenue daily from the mothballed Disneyland Resort district. “The novelty of stay-at-home has worn off. There’s frustration, anxiety, fear and even anger at the shutdown.”
“The numbers (of COVID-19 cases in OC) are so small when you look at the overall population,” observed Diane Pritchett, executive director of the business group South Coast Metro Alliance.
Asked when the state should start to reopen, she said, “I wish it were today. I wish it were yesterday. Honestly, I’d love to see something happen by the end of April.”
Healthcare Caution
That is likely too early for the governor. Newsom has indicated he would be ready to unveil a timeline for easing restrictions in the first week of May, provided COVID-19 hospitalizations continue to decline, testing and tracing programs are in place and hospital workers have adequate masks and other protective equipment.
There is wide agreement that whenever the reopening begins, it will be in phases, with practices such as social distancing, wearing of face masks and bans on large gatherings still in place. Newsom said the state will operate like a dimmer switch, re-imposing or easing restrictions in specific areas as the virus flares up or recedes.
But to trace and treat the virus, medical facilities need more tests than are currently available. And that’s where the push to reboot the economy runs up against healthcare concerns. Moreover, health officials want more time to be sure the coronavirus curve is declining. That alone will require at least two to four weeks, said Karen Edwards, chair of epidemiology at UC Irvine’s School of Medicine.
If the economy were to reopen with preventive measures in place but inadequate testing, the virus could surge, she said. “Things are looking positive … but we don’t want to be premature and create a problem that would drag this out longer.”
Barry Arbuckle, CEO of MemorialCare Health System, called the coronavirus trend “very encouraging” and said it was “reasonable” to begin “careful” planning for a gradual reopening of the economy. But he emphasized the need for more testing capacity.
“All the countries that showed a flattening of their curve, still had residual cases,” said Dr. James Leo, MemorialCare’s chief medical officer. “We have to assume the likelihood the virus will still be around.”
For more views from OC’s top health system execs, see this week’s Healthcare Roundtable beginning on page 29.
OC Outperforms
Of course, even a low coronavirus rate is no consolation for those who have already been impacted by COVID-19 deaths and illnesses, nor is talk of lifting restrictions reassuring to people who fear they may be at risk.
But statistically, California and Orange County have weathered the epidemic remarkably well. Their COVID-19 rates are just a fraction of the national average and dramatically lower than hard-hit New York.
As of the middle of last week, California had reported 682 COVID-19 cases per 1 million people, one-sixteenth New York’s 10,897 per million. The state had suffered 22 deaths per million, a mere 4% of New York’s 591.
Even in California and particularly in Southern California, Orange County has been a standout. As of last Thursday, the county had reported 460 cases of COVID-19 per million and eight deaths per million. Last Thursday, the Business Journal’s trailing seven-day tally of new coronavirus cases in the county declined for a fourth straight day, a signal that the curve is indeed bending downward (see chart, this page).
What explains the relatively good news?
Health officials point to California’s early prevention measures, including the nation’s first stay-at-home order on March 19. Some observers credit California’s oft-parodied ex-urban lifestyle of airy ranch homes, single-occupancy vehicles and limited public transportation for creating a sort of built-in social distancing.
Newsom told Californians they had “bent the curve … The models have changed because of your behavior.”
But others suggest the models were simply wrong: “The state and others are relying on models that are putting too much emphasis on how quickly the virus could spread,” Moorlach said.
In deciding when to reopen the state and county, UCI’s Edwards acknowledged the need to balance COVID-19 concerns not only against the economic devastation caused by the shutdown, but also against the health problems that develop during a prolonged shutdown, such as substance abuse, domestic violence, mental health issues and postponed surgeries.
“There’s a lot of pressure from a lot of different places,” she said.
