Recall Ushers in Summer of Turmoil
By HOWARD FINE
With a measure to recall Gov. Gray Davis making its way to the November ballot, the stage is set for one of the most bruising campaigns ever in California.
“No question, there will be enough valid signatures to put this over the top before the cutoff for the fall election,” Los Angeles-based Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum said. “That is, unless some court decision stops everything in its tracks.”
Lawsuits challenging the validity of the recall petition signatures and how they were collected are likely to be the next round in what’s shaping up to be a nasty political fight.
Signature counting is progressing statewide. Scott Rodermund, Orange County’s interim registrar of voters, said his office had certified 110,000 of some 200,000 signatures submitted as of last week.
At stake is getting the recall on a special election ballot in November, where Republican turnout is expected to be higher than in the March presidential primary, with all the Democratic presidential candidates vying for votes.
The unprecedented recall effort presents a bewildering array of scenarios, making the outcome unpredictable. A recall vote would be two elections in one: first, whether to recall Davis and second, who should replace him.
“It is the ultimate application of game theory,” said Roger Salazar, a Democratic consultant and political adviser to Davis.
Salazar and the Democrats are painting the recall bid as a right-wing Republican takeover of Sacramento.
Their strategy: Demonize the Republican opponents out to replace Davis.
That’s already begun, with recent negative news stories about Rep. Darrell Issa, the Vista Republican and multimillionaire car-alarm magnate who is funding much of the recall effort.
Recall proponents are seeking to tap into voter anger about the state’s poor fiscal and economic health,and lay the blame squarely on Davis. They plan to point to the budget gridlock and tax increases, including the recent tripling of vehicle license fees.
Beyond general strategies, much will depend on who decides to run on the ballot to replace Davis.
“Nobody knows what’s going to happen until we know who’s going to be on the ballot, both on the Democratic and Republican side,” Hoffenblum said.
So far, only two candidates openly have declared their intention to run: Issa and Green Party member Peter Camejo.
Other Republicans have indicated interest, including Arnold Schwarzenegger; State Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks; former GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon; and former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan (only if Schwarzenegger doesn’t run).
Last week, Schwarzenegger said he’s still undecided and won’t commit one way or the other until he’s done touting “Terminator 3.”
On the Democratic side, all the major potential gubernatorial candidates holding statewide office have said they don’t intend to run on a replacement ballot. That includes U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who by far is the most popular Democratic politician in the state.
That could change if it looks like Davis could be unseated.
Who ultimately decides to run won’t be known for certain until the recall is certified.
As of last week, proponents claimed to have gathered 1.4 million signatures, with more than a million turned in to county officials as of early last week. Nearly 900,000 valid signatures are needed.
Recall organizers have until Sept. 2 to turn in the required number of signatures. They’ve imposed their own deadline of Wednesday to turn in at least 1.2 million signatures in a bid to ensure that the measure gets on the November ballot.
If verification of the signatures were to slip past Sept. 3, the election would be consolidated to the March ballot.
Recent polls show Davis’ approval rating hovering in the 20% range, with at least half of likely voters saying that if the election were held today, they would vote to recall him.
“There is nobody in this state who thinks Davis has done a good job as governor,” said Sal Russo, chief strategist for the Recall Gray Davis Committee. “As such, there is no countervailing force against the recall.”
Beyond looking to tar Davis, recall proponents figure the best strategy is to field several candidates to run against him, blunting any direct counterattacks that Davis might launch.
“It’s going to be much more difficult to demonize several candidates,” Russo said. “Ultimately, one will be left standing and will be the winner.”
Forcing the governor to try to attack several candidates may backfire on Davis himself.
“He’s going to have to be really careful if he tries this,” said Bob Stern, president of the Center for Governmental Studies in Los Angeles. “It’s easy to take down one candidate at a time, especially if it’s a clear conservative like Issa or Simon. It gets much more difficult if you have a broad range of candidates arrayed against you. Saying that all of them are bad is more likely to make you look desperate.”
But the Republicans face a downside themselves if their candidates focus more on the horse race among themselves than on the recall question.
“If you’re asking me whether the Republicans are smart enough to blow this like they did last year, the answer is yes,” Hoffenblum said. “The key is making sure that they follow Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment, which is ‘Thou shalt not attack fellow Republicans.'”
Otherwise, he said, the candidates might be so consumed by sniping at each other that they distract from what needs to be the real focus of the campaign: getting more than 50% of voters to support the recall itself. The top vote getter wins the race to replace Davis, without having to win an absolute majority.
On the Democrats’ side, the strategy is to portray the recall effort as partisan sour grapes.
“This is a pretty stark choice that’s being presented to California voters: Do you want the results of last year’s election to stand, or do you want to allow a group of extremist Republicans and failed Republican candidates to overturn the will of the voters,” said Steve Smith, who last month left his post in Davis’ cabinet to serve as campaign manager for Taxpayers Against the Recall.
Democratic business leaders including Eli Broad and Warren Christopher came out last week against the recall effort, as did the non-partisan Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce.
They warned of chaos and uncertainty should the recall succeed. The state already has enough problems to deal with, they said, such as the budget deficit and an out-of-control workers’ compensation system.
“Our hope is that before this reaches the point of no return, we can convince people there are bigger things at stake,” said Rusty Hammer, the chamber’s chief executive.
The Orange County Business Council hasn’t taken a stance on the recall effort, spokeswoman Marissa Espino said.
Fine is a staff writer with the Los Angeles Business Journal.
