Most national experts have weighed in with a big ba hambug for retail sales this holiday season.
Rising gas prices, subprime mortgage defaults and a slowing economy that could get bleaker next year are being blamed.
The Washington, D.C.-based National Retail Federation forecasts a 4% rise in holiday sales this year to $474 billion. That’s below the 10-year average of 4.8% and the slowest since 2002, when sales were up 1.3%.
Here in Orange County, retailers and mall managers seem to be somewhat jollier. Looking to next year, optimism is there, just tempered.
“It’s looking very positive,” said Patsy Sanquist, area director of marketing for the Shops at Mission Viejo and Laguna Hills Mall, both part of Simon Property Group Inc.
There are more shoppers at the malls and sales are expected to be better than last year, she said.
The Shops did a little sprucing up in the past couple of weeks to get ready for Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving when shoppers rush the stores.
The mall is full except for The Discovery Channel store (which along with some 100 other mall stores was closed recently by Discovery Communications Holding LLC).
Sanquist has been prepping for Santa’s arrival and coordinating holiday decorations. It takes nine days to get it all done, she said.
The Shops doesn’t have a Christmas tree. Instead, it holds an “evening of giving,” which was this past weekend.
Laguna Hills Mall is slated for a remodel. No word on when, Sanquist, said.
“Hopefully, it will be soon,” she said.
Lab, Camp
At The Lab and The Camp, both in Costa Mesa, sales are being watched “closely,” said Monet Quick, marketing and communications director for the centers.
“This year has been a bit sporadic,” Quick said. “We are not expecting a big increase from last year’s numbers but we’re still counting on a decent holiday season.”
Irvine Co.
At The Irvine Company, which owns and runs Fashion Island, The Market Place and Irvine Spectrum Center, Nina Robinson and her colleagues are optimistic.
The company’s malls expect to beat the 4% national forecast and end the year up from last year, said Robinson, vice president of marketing for the Irvine Co.’s retail centers.
“We’re tracking better than last year,” she said.
But sales have been softer this year compared to the past several years, Robinson said.
Some of the hot selling gifts this year: Dresses, booties (ankle boots), gadgets and gift cards, Robinson said.
Dresses are everywhere. Gold, silver and bronze metallic on jewelry, handbags, clothing and shoes are popular this year. The 1960s are influencing patterns and designs. Camel and gray are trendy as are shades of blue, deep reds, purples and winter whites, she said.
Gift card sales grow every year, she said. For the Irvine Co., gift card sales are more than a third of its annual sales, she said. The Irvine Co. offers one gift card for all three of its major malls.
Next year, the Irvine Co. is forecasting stable sales.
Harry & David
This month and next, Harry & David gourmet food gift shop at Metro Point at South Coast in Costa Mesa is gearing up for big business. This time of year it does half to 55% of its business for the year, said Schelia Evans, store manager.
She’s expecting a 10% increase this year from last. Harry & David, which has a handful of stores in OC, has an older, well-heeled clientele.
These are people who already have enough things and don’t want to give things that need to be dusted, she said.
“They want to give consumables,” Evans said.
Harry & David makes gift baskets with all kinds of yummy treats. It’s known for its “enrobed” fruit (that’s fruit covered in chocolate), fruitcake (it usually runs out) and pears.
Typically the store ramps up from one to three pallets of goodies a week to 15 per week during the holidays. About 20% to 30% of its business is corporate.
Fletcher Jones
Checking in at Newport Beach’s Fletcher Jones Motorcars, Garth Blumenthal is “very bullish” for the holidays. Fletcher Jones had a strong October that has continued into November. It has been selling 20 cars a day, he said.
Last month, Fletcher sold 500 new autos, he said. By year’s end, Blumenthal is expecting sales to be up 10% for the year.
Another thing spurring purchases before the end of the year is the weak dollar to the euro. That actually makes a Mercedes more expensive here. But Daimler AG has been offsetting the price of a Mercedes with the fall of the dollar.
It can only do that for so long and is likely to raise prices next year, according to Blumenthal.
