COMMENT: Crunch Time
Commentary by Rick Reiff
THE VOTERS HAVE SPOKEN, THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS HAS FLIPPED ACORDINGLY,
Irvine has laid out its plan for a developer-enabled Great Park, The Irvine Company has told skeptics it’s not interested in acquiring the site and
We could still be a long way from resolving what happens at El Toro.
By this week the poker-faced Navy is supposed to finally show its hand, issuing a record of decision that will explain how it will dispose (or, possibly, not dispose) of the 4,700-acre former Marine base. The Navy has said it will respect the anti-aviation mandate of the voter-approved Measure W, but it also has indicated it wants to get as much as it can from selling the land, which would appear to be at odds with the back-to-nature aims of Measure W.
Irvine, aware of this conflict, is offering to zone about 500 acres of the base for homes and business; if the Navy goes along with the idea and turns over the rest of the base for the Great Park, figure it could collect a ballpark $1 million an acre on the 500 acres, or a half billion dollars.
(An aside: The Irvine plan now envisions generating enough development revenue to satisfy the Navy, help to develop the Great Park and to generate $800,000 a year for North County parks as a reward to lameduck Supervisor Cynthia Coad for switching her vote. “Enron is more financially sound than the Irvine plan,” quipped pro-airport consultant Dave Ellis.)
But what if the Navy decides the Irvine offer isn’t compatible with base closure rules, or simply decides it’s a lousy deal? After all, the remainder of the base has some development potential, too. Even ascribing a much reduced price of, say, $300,000 an acre for the other 4,000-plus acres of the base still adds up to more than $1 billion that the Navy is leaving on the table if it turns the land over for a park.
If things were to reach a standoff, the locals’ leverage would be the park zoning imposed by Measure W,who’s going to buy land from the Navy that can’t be developed? But the Navy could counter by suing,after all, turning an airport into open space could be construed as a “takings.” Or the feds could play hardball, hang onto the base and do pretty much whatever they pleased,federal trumps local.
So, what the Navy decides this week is likely to be key in shaping the future of El Toro. The record of decision could speed along the Irvine park plan or it could further complicate an already tangled scenario.
Here’s a recap: One remnant of the pro-airport forces is suing to overturn Measure W. Another remnant is pushing for a ballot measure to revive the airport plan with redrawn flight patterns. Los Angeles politicians (at least those without gubernatorial ambitions) are flexing their lobbying muscle in a last-minute bid to salvage an El Toro airport as a relief valve for LAX. The Juaneno Indians want dibs on the base for a casino, outlet mall and/or power plant. (Psst, wouldn’t that runway be dandy for flying in high rollers?) And even the Marines have become a fly in the Irvine ointment, with a proposal to plop a boot camp on 1,300 acres of the base and thus free up land in San Diego for an expansion of Lindbergh Field.
National mandates, regional needs, local desires.
What a show. It’s the Navy’s turn to step stage center.
, Rick Reiff
