It’s VHS vs. Beta, Mac vs. PC, Netscape vs. Explorer,all over again in the battle for the next generation of DVD players and discs.
In the middle is Irvine-based Broadcom Corp.
The chipmaker said earlier this month it has come up with a chip that allows DVD players to read and record in either of two competing formats for high-definition discs.
That has some observers thinking a Broadcom chip could play peacemaker, powering some kind of machine that plays either format.
Broadcom unveiled its chip earlier this month at the center of the battle in the U.S.: the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. There, geeks got their first look at the competing DVD standards, Blu-Ray and HD DVD.
For its part, Newport Beach’s Conexant Systems Inc. said it’s waiting for a winner to emerge before going after the chip market for next-generation DVDs.
The new DVD players promise brighter, sharper pictures. The discs offer more space for features or alternate versions of a movie.
Sony vs. Toshiba
The battle pits the biggest names of consumer electronics against each other.
On the Blu-Ray side is Sony Corp. and its allies, including Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.’s Panasonic and Dell Inc.
On the HD DVD side is Toshiba Corp., Sanyo Electric Co. and Hitachi Maxell Ltd., among others.
“You’re looking at an unbridled format war that is extremely unproductive,” said Steve Kovsky, an analyst with Current Analysis Inc. in San Diego.
A year ago, Broadcom came out with a chip that supported just the HD DVD format. At the time, standards for Blu-Ray weren’t nailed down, according to Broadcom officials.
“Broadcom is going to be agnostic,” company spokesman Peter Andrew said at CES. “We’ll let the two camps fight it out.”
The company has design wins for both formats. One is with Toshiba, which earlier this month unveiled the first HD DVD player.
Toshiba America Information Systems Inc., the company’s Irvine-based U.S. computer arm, said it plans to come out with the first HD DVD laptop.
The dual-format chip isn’t likely to drive big sales soon for Broadcom. Revenue probably will be “small” in the next year or so, according to Andrew.
There could be potential for Broadcom in players that handle both formats. But the real market lies with whichever standard prevails, analysts said.
Other pieces need to fall into place for dual-format players. They’d also need a “read head” that can decipher both formats, said Ted Schadler, analyst with Forrester Research Inc.
The player maker also would have to license both formats, which would add costs, he said.
“A multiformat player makes a lot of sense to consumers,” Schadler said. “But the two camps are so far apart right now that they will find ways to prevent such a device from being built. Add it all up, and we’re a long way from having a universal player.”
Others are skeptical. The idea won’t get off the ground, insisted David Mercer, an analyst with Strategy Analytics Inc. in London.
“It’s going to take more than a chip to pull the two sides together,” he said. “The prospects of any unification are more or less dead right now.”
So which format might prevail?
Blu-Ray may have a leg up, according to analysts.
“We’ve taken the line that Blu-Ray is certainly the front-runner,” Mercer said.
With Sony pushing Blu-Ray into its anticipated PlayStation 3, more consumers likely will use Blu-Ray before HD DVD, he said.
Money on Blu-Ray
Blu-Ray could emerge as the winner because it has the bigger coalition of companies with the most market share, Schadler said.
“Blu-Ray will ultimately beat out HD DVD to become the next DVD standard,” he said. “The reason is simple: Sony learned from its painful Betamax loss that the format with the most industry support will win. And it set out years ago to assemble an impregnable lineup of partners.”
It could take at least two years for a winner to emerge, he said.
Tech junkies, known as early adopters, could place their bets on the first players out. But mass sales are a few years off.
Many Hollywood studios are rooting for Blu-Ray.
The discs hold more data and eventually could include more versions of movies and other features.
HD DVD counts Time Warner Inc. as a backer.
The early edge on price goes to HD DVD. Toshiba’s player slated for this year is set to sell for $499. Early Blu-Ray models are more than $1,000.
“Things should be a lot clearer in a year or so,” Mercer said.
