The outlook for just about all of Orange County’s economy next year: an early 2009 hangover that gives way to subtle growth later.
Employment, the main indicator of growth here, is expected to turn in the second half of 2010 with a yearly gain of about 1,000 jobs, according to Chapman University’s forecast last week. The projected gain isn’t much. But it would be a big change from the 62,000 jobs projected to be lost in 2009.
Of course, it’s worth noting economists also predicted a first half slump followed by a recovery for 2009. That didn’t exactly pan out.
But economists and industry watchers sound more resolute these days, with the pace of local layoffs slowing and a return to growth in the national economy in the third quarter.
From technology to tourism, most are betting on a pickup around midyear. Even retail, one of the hardest hit sectors, is seen as bouncing back.
The one holdout: commercial real estate. Even as housing rebounds, expectations are for things to get worse before they get better for the county’s office, industrial and other commercial buildings.
We look at nine key parts of the county’s economy and what to expect in 2010 inside this issue, our annual forecast edition.
It starts with technology on page 5 and continues through page 15.
—Michael Lyster
