The value of exports from Orange County will continue a post-recession climb in 2013, when companies here are expected to see a 5.8% increase and send $27 billion worth of goods around the world, according to a recent report from California State University, Fullerton.
Merchandise exports make up about 13% of Orange County’s economy, which is estimated at about $184.6 billion, according to the report.
The study—done by the school’s Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies—said exports are expected to heat up more in 2014, with a gain of nearly 10%, to about $30 billion.
Rebound
The annual increases are slower compared with 2010 and 2011, when exports in OC began to rebound from the recession. Companies here accounted for a 22.2% gain in 2010, and a pickup of 20.2% in 2011, when the total value of exports reached $24.6 billion.
Those gains followed a 15% decline to $16.7 billion in 2009, during the depths of the recession.
The big rebounds in 2010 and 2011 got local exports back to pre-recession levels.
The pace of growth began to slow in 2012, when exports rose 4%, to about $25.6 billion, according to the report, authored by Mira Farka, co-director for the institute, and Adrian Fleissig, an economics professor at the school.
Fleissig attributed the sluggish pace of growth for the coming years to a number of factors, including a global slowdown in merchandise exports, fiscal tightening in the U.S. and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Sluggish growth in other countries also is dampening export expectations.
“There’s a drop-off in exports to Mexico in 2012, after a big surge in 2010 and 2011,” Fleissig said. “The economy there is not doing as well as it was previously.”
Mexico is the most active trading partner of Orange County, followed by Canada. Countries in Asia—China, Japan and South Korea—round out the top five.
Exports to South Korea are especially likely to pick up, following a recent free trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea, according to the report.
Tech Sector
Orange County’s exports are primarily driven by high-technology components, Fleissig said.
Technology clusters “not only support a large base of employment and output, but also make up a large percentage of merchandise exports from the county,” the report said.
The computer and electronic-products sector is expected to account for about 28% of the total exports by 2014, at $8.4 billion. Transportation equipment will likely reach $5.2 billion, making up about 17% of the total volume.
Other sectors contributing to total exports include chemical products, food and fabricated metal products.
