By HOWARD FINE
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been a potent factor in the runup to the Nov. 2 election, even if his name won’t appear on the ballot.
The movie-hero governor has thrown his considerable clout at a number of ballot measures and legislative races, attempting to repeat his success in turning around a failing $15 billion bond initiative in March.
Schwarzenegger, the most popular governor since Ronald Reagan, last week came out in support of Proposition 71, the $3 billion stem-cell initiative that is opposed by fiscal and social conservatives.
Campaign Terminated
Meanwhile, the governor already has forced backers of Proposition 68, the measure to expand slot machines to card clubs and racetracks, to fold their campaign.
And the mere threat that he would launch his own initiative forced a workers’ compensation reform package through the Legislature.
“When he takes his considerable ability and political support and applies it to a campaign, he makes a big difference,” said Darry Sragow, a Democratic political strategist.
Even so, some cracks are starting to show in the governor’s image.
Schwarzenegger has gotten caught up in some highly partisan political battles in Sacramento. And, in recent months, his support among Democrats has slipped below 50%, still high for an opposition governor.
As a result, he will have a tougher time convincing Democratic voters to cross over and vote for the Republican legislative candidates in head-to-head races.
“You’re not seeing huge numbers of Democrats defecting to the Republican Party,” Sragow said. “So his ability to affect these races will be quite limited, unless you’ve got a razor-thin margin.”
Schwarzenegger lost crossover support from Democrats starting with budget talks this summer.
At first, Schwarzenegger promised to work with Democrats in the Legislature to pass a budget on time. But Democratic leaders,especially Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez,resisted many of the cuts in the Schwarzenegger budget. They urged students and others impacted by the cuts to come to Sacramento to protest.
Instead of agreeing to a compromise, Schwarzenegger tried to stick by his budget proposal.
He took to the road, holding rallies in districts with Democratic incumbents regarded as vulnerable in the November elections.
At one such rally at a shopping center in Assemblywoman Gloria Negrette Mc-Cloud’s district in Ontario, Schwarzeneg-ger called Democratic legislators who resisted his proposals “girlie men.”
“They should get back to the table and they should finish the budget,” he said.
That remark instantly made the rounds of the late night talk shows. It also angered some Democrats. From that time on, Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings among Democrats fell below 50%.
At the top of the governor’s list of election priorities is an all-out campaign against gambling-expansion propositions 68 and 70 and rallies for Proposition 1A, the codification of his pact not to raid local coffers in the future.
Schwarzenegger also might campaign against Proposition 66, which would roll back some of the provisions of the 1994 “three strikes” law, according to Rob Stutzman, spokesman for the governor’s California Recovery Team, a political action committee that has raised $15 million in this election cycle.
Schwarzenegger has taken positions on nine other ballot measures, though he has not actively campaigned on any of them.
He has endorsed Proposition 64, a controversial measure that would limit the filing of “unfair business competition” lawsuits.
He opposes Proposition 72, the employer healthcare mandate.
“To the extent he’s opposing initiatives, he’ll probably succeed in those, since it’s almost always easier to defeat initiatives than to campaign for them,” said Elizabeth Garrett, professor of law at the University of Southern California School of Law. “What will be more interesting to see is whether his endorsements of initiatives will make a difference.”
The latest poll numbers show that Schwarzenegger has his work cut out for him on Proposition 64, the tort reform measure, which is trailing badly in the polls with 26% support.
Helping Candidates
He also has made campaign appearances on behalf of several Republican legislative candidates.
Four of them are incumbent Assembly members: Guy Houston of Livermore, Abel Maldonado of San Luis Obispo, Shirley Horton of San Diego and Bonnie Garcia of El Centro.
Schwarzenegger also has campaigned on behalf of incumbent state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks and for Gary Podesto, who is challenging Stockton Democrat incumbent Sen. Mike Machado.
(During summer budget talks, Schwarzenegger appeared in Long Beach with Republican Steve Kuykendall, who is challenging termed-out state Sen. Betty Karnette for a hotly contested open Assembly seat.)
In most of these races, Schwarzenegger is backing Republicans who, like himself, are social moderates and fiscal conservatives, according to Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum.
But Schwarzenegger hasn’t made appearances on behalf of some Republican challengers in close races, including Greg Hill, the Redondo Beach mayor who is battling Democrat Mike Gordon, former mayor of El Segundo, for an open Assembly seat in the South Bay.
“Schwarzenegger is being very selective and protective of his resources,” said Tim Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento.
This could be an acknowledgment Schwarzenegger’s coattails may not be as extensive in legislative races.
One campaign appearance he did make on behalf of a challenger,Bakersfield Republican businessman Dean Gardner,appears to have backfired.
Since the Schwarzenegger appearance, allegations surfaced that Gardner, who is running against incumbent state Assemblywoman Nicole Parra, had used seven different aliases and filed for personal bankruptcy six times in the last 25 years.
“It’s a high-risk business,” Hoffenblum said. “Yes, his clout is enhanced every time a candidate or measure he pushes wins. But there’s also a downside. If he shows he can be beaten or backs the wrong horse, his clout in the future goes down.”
Fine is a staff reporter with the Los Angeles Business Journal.
