The county’s tourism industry is set to ride out the doldrums of the lingering downturn in 2010 with some mild gains predicted near the end of the year.
Visitors, hotel stays and other key measures are likely to be flat for much of 2010 with a possible uptick in the fourth quarter, according to industry watchers.
The modest forecast is an improvement from 2009, which saw an overall decline in tourism.
About 42 million visitors are expected here next year, a 1% gain from 2009, when visitors are projected to fall nearly 3% from 2008 to 41.9 million, according to San Diego-based CIC Research Inc.
Hotel occupancy could rise starting at about midyear, said Bruce Baltin, an analyst with Los Angeles-based PKF Consulting Corp.
“The doldrums is going to continue for a while, but our expectations are that demand will start to turn positive in the second quarter,” he said.
Hotels here are pegged to end 2009 at about 65.5% occupancy, down about 6% from a year earlier.
The county’s convention business is seen as holding steady next year.
There are 42 citywide conventions using multiple hotels set for Anaheim next year, compared to 43 in 2009.
The number of convention groups already booked is about the same as a year ago, said Mindy Abel, senior vice president of the Anaheim/Orange County Visitor & Conven-tion Bureau.
“I’m cautiously optimistic for another good meeting year,” she said.
Anaheim’s first big convention of 2010 is The NAMM Show for makers of musical instruments. It drew about 80,000 people last January at the height of the downturn. A representative for the show said registration was on pace for similar attendance next month.
The summer looks to be promising for Anaheim with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the city expecting a big boost from hosting Major League Baseball’s 2010 All-Star Game in July.
Two years ago, the All-Star Game brought in nearly $150 million to New York. Even in the midst of the 2009 downturn, the game brought an estimated $60 million to St. Louis.
“We’re looking to have a triple-digit number, if possible, given our proximity to the greater Los Angeles area,” said Thomas Morton, convention center, sports and entertainment executive director for Anaheim.
PERSON TO WATCH: GEORGE KALOGRIDIS
George Kalogridis starts his first full year as Disneyland Resort president with a full plate.
First, Kalogridis, who started in October, will have to keep steering through a lingering slow-down that’s seen Walt Disney Co. turn to discounts and promotions to keep visitors coming.
Kalogridis oversees two Anaheim theme parks, three hotels and Downtown Disney District shopping center.
In good years, the Disneyland Resort generates more than $1 billion in annual revenue and came in at about $940 million for the 12 months through June.
Just as tricky, Kalogridis will have to manage a $1.1 billion upgrade of Disney’s California Adventure theme park with as little disruption as possible to the Disney experience for visitors.
From 2000 to 2002, Kalogridis served as senior vice president of resort operations for the Disneyland Resort, where he was involved with the opening of California Adventure.
Before returning to Anaheim, he was chief operating officer for Disneyland Resort Paris.
—Michael Volpe
HOTEL TO WATCH: St. Regis
2010 could see another twist for the St. Regis Monarch Beach Resort in Dana Point.
The hotel that spawned the “AIG effect” is up for sale with a deal reportedly in the works for $245 million to $250 million.
Earlier this year, Citigroup Inc. foreclosed on its portion of the hotel’s debt after former co-owners Makar Properties LLC of Newport Beach and San Francisco hedge fund Farallon Capital Management LLC fell behind on payments.
There’s been some chatter that Makar Properties could try to regain the hotel. The real estate company still owns a couple pieces of land around the hotel.
The St. Regis gained attention after insurer American International Group Inc. held a $450,000 retreat there just days after receiving an $85 billion bailout from the government in late 2008.
For the St. Regis, the notoriety exacerbated a downturn that’s hit all of the county’s luxury hotels. Next year, the hotel stands to be a barometer of the sector’s fortunes, recovering or otherwise.
—Michael Volpe
