Election year.
That’s the outlook for government in 2010 with several key races on tap for Orange County. Some are local. Others are statewide. A couple have national implications and could be midterm tests of the Obama administration.
The county’s entire congressional delegation is up for re-election. Most are likely to be returned to Congress with little real opposition. But two races bear watching.
In the 48th district covering parts of Irvine, Newport Beach and South County, Irvine Councilwoman Beth Krom is taking on Republican incumbent John Campbell.
The Democratic candidate in the Republican-leaning district always faces an uphill battle. But Obama’s 2008 win in the district emboldened Krom to mount a challenge.
With the Obama effect now faded, the money of most political watchers is on Campbell easily keeping his seat, possibly in a landslide.
Republicans number 195,300 in the district, versus 128,340 Democrats and 95,000 who decline to align with either party.
Even with Obama on the ticket, Campbell’s last challenger—lawyer Steve Young—got 40% of the vote to Campbell’s 55%.
The other race with national implications is for the 47th district covering parts of Santa Ana, Garden Grove and Anaheim. The district is the only one in the county held by a Democrat, Loretta Sanchez.
Republicans have targeted the seat as one of several nationwide they’d like to win. The National Republican Congressional Committee is backing state Assemblyman Van Tran.
Sanchez has easily held the seat since 1997. But Democratic voters hold just a slim lead in the district. And Tran is likely to appeal to the area’s Vietnamese-Americans.
In November, Sanchez cast the final, symbolic Democratic vote to pass healthcare reform in the House of Representatives, something Tran likely will seize upon.
But, like Krom, Tran faces an uphill battle.
He first has to win a primary race against Quang Pham, a retired Marine pilot and healthcare entrepreneur. Odds are with Tran, but the primary challenge could fragment fundraising.
Through September, Tran’s raised about $300,000 with Pham at about $125,000.
Sanchez has a formidable war chest of more than $700,000 and no primary challenger.
In state politics, Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby, a Republican, is set to face Democrat John MacMurray in a runoff next month for the Assembly seat of Yorba Linda’s Mike Duvall, who resigned in September after boasting about having sex with lobbyists.
Norby got the most votes in a November special election and is favored to win the Jan. 12 runoff.
The prospect of Norby winning has sparked a race to fill his seat on the Board of Supervisors. Five have lined up to run for it, including county Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, a Democrat with some early Republican support.
The others: Anaheim Councilman Harry Sidhu; Fullerton Councilman Shawn Nelson, a Republican endorsed by Norby; La Habra Councilwoman Rose Espinoza, a Democrat; and Anaheim Councilwoman Lorri Galloway, a Democrat.
PERSON TO WATCH: WAYNE QUINT
Few can instill more fear in politicians than Wayne Quint, president of the 1,800-member Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs.
But with local governments in the red and public employee benefit costs soaring, his union’s ability to steer public policy and tap voter goodwill will be tested in the new year.
“Gains we’ve made are on the line,” Quint said. “2010 is a watershed year.”
The union is operating under an expired contract and talks are moving glacially; the county supervisors are seeking freezes and givebacks. The prospect of layoffs looms with Sheriff Sandra Hutchens facing an estimated $70 million deficit. Control of jail jobs is at stake, with Hutchens wanting to replace a third of roughly 1,000 deputy guards with cheaper workers.
Statewide and even national attention is focused on the supervisors’ lawsuit challenging “retroactive” pension benefits granted to deputies in 2001.
And Quint will be deciding which candidates to support—and which to hammer next year. Will the union back the appointed incumbent or a challenger for sheriff? Will it find a union-friendly candidate in the race for the seat being vacated by Supervisor Chris Norby? And will it spend heavily again in a bid to unseat its Teflon critic, Supervisor John Moorlach? As of June, the union had $1 million in its campaign coffers.
—Rick Reiff
