Economic forecasting can be like shoveling fog. It involves skillfull interpretation of vague and complex trends, and encompasses multiple skills, such as economic theory and technical training in statistics, according to economic experts.
The Chapman University professor who elevated the science to an art form died April 8 from complications of a stroke.
Esmael Adibi, who held the A. Gary Anderson Chair in Economic Analysis and directed the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at the Orange university, was 63.
For nearly 40 years he presented the Chapman Economic Forecasts, which were recently found to have the highest degree of accuracy among the blue chip forecasts over the past decade, according to a study by the Anderson Center. Businesspeople from all over the country relied on them, so Adibi’s death leaves a big void in the area, according to Jeremy Hill, director of the Center for Economic Development and Business Research in Kansas.
Hill described “Essie,” as friends called Adibi, as “a treasured friend and colleague” in Adibi’s professional association, the Montana-based Association for University Business and Economic Research, an association of business and economic research organizations at public and private universities.
“Centers similar to the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research across the U.S. would look to Essie for not just his expectations of the national economy, but to his unique insight, wit, and humor,” Hill said via email. “His success and approach to forecasting are only two reasons why he remained a reoccurring keynote speaker at our annual conference. Essie will be greatly missed by his colleagues.”
Outgoing Chapman President Jim Doti said he was still grieving and didn’t want to comment about Adibi for now, according to university spokesperson Mary Platt. Doti emailed a letter to the Chapman community on April 9 that referred to Adibi as his “closest friend.”
“It’s really difficult for me to imagine my life or that of the university without him,” Doti wrote. “The power of his personality, wisdom and intellect was so much a part of our community. He was one of our brightest stars.”
Doti, also an economist, and Adibi would present two forecasts each year: the annual economic forecast in December and a forecast update in June. Doti typically would present the national forecast, and Adibi would give the California and Orange County forecasts. According to Doti, the Chapman Economic Forecast is the longest running in the country.
Platt said it’s unknown what form the forecasts will take after Adibi’s death, since the Chapman community is still grieving his loss.
Chapman Loyal
Adibi earned his MBA at Chapman and was among Doti’s first graduate students there when Doti was a professor. He went on to get a master’s in economics at California State University-Fullerton and a doctorate in economics from Claremont Graduate University. He became an economics professor at Chapman in 1978.
Students adored Adibi because of his “genius for explaining the thorniest of economic subjects with wit and wisdom,” Doti wrote.
The forecasts started out inconspicuously. They were originally a class project for students studying econometrics—the application of mathematics, statistical methods and computer science to economic data. Doti, who was a professor at the time, oversaw the students. Then Adibi joined the faculty, and he and Doti decided to take the forecasts public because they thought businesspeople and community leaders would be interested, Platt said via email.
“It turns out they were definitely interested,” she said, “and the forecasts soon outgrew their university venues and had to move to larger venues in local hotel ballrooms and [then] to two of the largest stages in Orange County, at Segerstrom Center for the Arts.”
Chapmanc students in the Anderson Center continued to help prepare the forecasts.
Raymond Sfeir, associate dean of the Argyros School of Business and Economics at Chapman, said Adibi was a significant contributor to the progress Chapman made over the past four decades.
“By making presentations on the performance of the economy all over the country, he became the face of Chapman,” Sfeir said via email. “Thousands of people knew of Chapman through Essie. He was an inspiration to his students. His uplifting spirit was soothing to all of us. We will all miss him dearly.”
Broad Reach
Adibi also was very involved in the private and public sectors. He was past president of the Association for University Business and Economic Research and a member of the National Association for Business Economics’ Outlook Survey Panel and Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Panel.
He also served on the State Treasurer’s Council of Economic Advisors. State Treasurer John Chiang released a statement following Adibi’s death, saying, “His nine years of service to me, and more importantly, the people of California, were marked by consummate professionalism, quick-witted humor, and thoughtful insights guiding my decision-making through the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Essie—an esteemed colleague, trusted advisor, and good friend—will be sorely missed.”
Adibi is survived by his wife, Jila, daughter Roxanne, son Keeya, and grandchildren, Nicholas and Alexander.
Donations in his memory are being accepted by the Adibi Family International Scholarship Fund at Chapman that he established many years ago. He donated the honorariums he received for his public speaking engagements to the fund, according to Doti’s letter about his friend.
