In 2011, only 6% of online activity was generated by mobile devices.
If at that time you knew the next 10 years would see mobile traffic grow by 833% and surpass the desktop as the preferred device for online activity—which it did—what would you have done differently? Would you have prioritized building mobile-friendly website features? Would you have been more inclined to consider app-based engagement ideas? Would you have paid closer attention to emerging trends and evolving mobile capabilities to ensure you stay relevant and competitive as the market expands?
As we all know, there is clarity in hindsight. So, this type of thought experiment is not meant to cause fixation on the past. Especially since there was no way to predict the tech innovations, consumer interest and product accessibility that drove such rapid growth.
However, in looking back over that 10-year time frame, there were certainly market trends and indicators foreshadowing a mobile-centric consumer evolution. Simply being aware of forthcoming market growth would not have provided all the answers, but it would have enhanced the ability to be proactive rather than reactive.
When it comes to business planning, there will always be elements of uncertainty and a need for decisions to be made based on unknown outcomes.
Thought Boundaries
At the MacKenzie Corp., my focus is empowering clients across industries to achieve their goals.
In 2019, I became interested in Strategic Foresight when I kept thinking that “there had to be a better way for organizations to proactively plan for the future.” Having worked for big companies such as Home Depot and HSBC Bank and then with companies of all sizes for our work with MacKenzie, I realized that there was a massive amount of wasted energy in how companies plan.
I took a course through The Futures School, which began in 2015. I was blessed to have attended my first in-person training in November 2019, right before COVID hit. The training gave me new tools to navigate the past two years and see the world from a different perspective.
The school gave me a certificate as a Certified Foresight Practitioner, which shows I can conduct trendspotting, horizon scanning and pattern-making that informs future scenarios and impacts business results.
While the future cannot be predicted, we can examine and assess the information presently available to theorize and posit. We can expand our thought boundaries and lift our vision to more distant time horizons. We can explore possible future-world scenarios based on current trends, patterns, and change indicators.
These proactive measures embody the nature of Strategic Foresight, and they have greatly influenced how I am planning the future of my business.
I’ve found the underlying principles help develop long-term strategies and bold business practices that prioritize the customer experience and best position brands for future success.
These principles enhance one’s ability to navigate uncertainty, adapt to change and break free of assumptions that may be causing growth barriers.
By becoming active participants rather than reactive bystanders, we unlock the inherent human ability to imagine and explore plausible-yet-provocative futures. In other words, we create space to wonder, imagine and foster emergent thinking.
Now, it’s important to note, this futures practice is intended to be more than fluff and fantasy. Envisioning possible future worlds is only the beginning. After developing scenarios of varying likelihood, severity and consequences, we place ourselves squarely within those settings for decision making rehearsals.
What would it take for the organization to be successful in each world? What actions must be taken today for maintaining relevance and competitive positioning tomorrow? Furthermore, which possible world do we want to become reality and how can we be proactive in making that happen?
Strategic Foresight at its best is an integrated mindset that promotes heightened awareness of plausible alternative solutions to challenges across all levels.
By its very nature, since the future isn’t yet written, we can play a role in proactively influencing and shaping it.
A great place to start is with environmental scanning. Look outside your organization to consider impactful and emerging social, technological, economic, and political trends. In doing so, we remain aware of external changes as they occur. Thus, we are poised to act upon opportunities and side-step pitfalls. Not only are we equipped to understand and navigate the present, but we are also compiling information needed to plan.
World War II Beginnings
The principles of Strategic Foresight can be traced to the Second World War when military leaders recognized their competitive landscape was changing.
Advancements in science and technology, both at home and abroad, would have an unknown impact on the global stage. As such, long-term strategic planning relied on their ability to establish a base awareness of the present environment, identify emerging trends and patterns, map forward a series of possible future world scenarios and determine the best course of action for each case.
In doing so, as time moved forward, event outcomes were less of a surprise, more of a validation or rejection of hypotheses. It was not a matter of predicting the future; it was planning for multiple possibilities and being prepared for whichever came into reality.
Of course, the stakes of business are much lower than the military’s, but there are still wide-ranging implications and consequences of the decisions we make. Our world is a maturing information age with greater levels of complexity and uncertainty than ever before.
Strategic Foresight provides a way of embracing this complexity instead of trying to control or avoid it. Through anticipatory thinking, we can increase our effectiveness and value more so than with traditional, linear, industrial age thinking.
The OC Future
To start applying Strategic Foresight principles within your business, explore your surrounding environment to identify key consumer trends and market patterns. For example, the rise of remote working is most definitely shaping the future economic landscape here in Orange County.
Irvine ranked as the number one city in California and 10th nationwide on the “Best Cities for Working Remotely,” a list put together by CommercialCafe, a national real estate company.
We have always known Orange County is an incredible place to work and live, but now everyone else knows it too. What does that mean for the future of our local communities? How will the influx of employment interest over the coming years impact our county’s economic, residential, and political landscape?
Digging further into this trend, how will individual needs, preferences and behaviors change as our local workforce evolves? Most importantly, what does your business need to do in the present to prepare for success, position for competitiveness, and plan for adaptability within this unpredictable future?
By creating and exploring possible future world scenarios, we can envision ourselves in a variety of contexts and strategize accordingly.
It is not about predicting the future; it is about being part of it.
Editor’s Note: Jenny Dinnen and her sister Katie Rucker run Irvine-based MacKenzie Corp., a customer insights consulting firm which was begun in 1985 by their father, Don Vivrette. The company, which has clients like Yamaha Motor Corp., was recognized during the Business Journal Family-Owned Business Awards in 2019.Â
