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Evolus Stock Rises After Beating Street

A New York-based analyst made a prescient call on Evolus Inc. (Nasdaq: EOLS), the Newport Beach maker of Jeuveau, an up-and-coming competitor to Botox.

“With solid fundamentals for the botulinum toxin market and a strong balance sheet following the recent debt financing, we believe EOLS is well positioned to execute on the Jeuveau launch, as well as explore opportunities to evolve its model to include other products,” wrote Truist Securities analyst Gregory Fraser in a Jan. 20 note to investors.

Fraser, who wrote his report when the stock was at $5.29, predicted its shares could reach $11 and upgraded them from a hold to a buy. He predicted sales of $147 million in 2022 and then growing another 39% to $204 million in 2023.

On Jan. 26, Evolus reported fourth-quarter results that topped analysts’ consensus. It also forecast 2022 sales will climb 43% to 50%, or $143 million to $150 million. The midpoint of $146.5 million is almost spot on Fraser’s call.

Its shares climbed almost 60% after Fraser made his call to around $9 and a $500 million market cap.

“We believe that EOLS can capture a material portion of the botulinum toxin market over time and are hopeful that continued execution on the Jeuveau launch can lead to improved stock performance from here,” Fraser wrote.

Fraser has been a pharmaceutical analyst for more than a decade, including for Deutsche Bank and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Evolus said it added 55,000 new consumers enrolled in its loyalty program, bringing its total to 270,000.

“Our focus on the millennial consumer, the fastest-growing neurotoxin user segment, together with the unique value proposition we offer clinicians through our innovative co-branded marketing program, continued to drive growth above the projected growth rate of our industry,” Chief Executive David Moatazedi said in a statement. 

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Peter J. Brennan
Peter J. Brennan
Peter J. Brennan has been a journalist for 40 years. He spent a decade in Latin America covering wars, narcotic traffickers, earthquakes, and business. His resume includes 15 years at Bloomberg News where his headlines and articles sometimes moved the market caps of companies he covered by hundreds of millions of dollars. His articles have been published worldwide, including the New York Times and the Washington Post; he's appeared on CNN, CBC, BBC, and Bloomberg TV. He was awarded a Kiplinger Fellowship at The Ohio State University.
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