The Business Journal sampled views from figures in Orange County on their post-pandemic business thoughts, and expectations for 2021.
Here are some excerpts:
CSUF Forecast
Anil Puri, the director of the Woods Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting at California State University, Fullerton says “The big macro picture is that people will get vaccinated, we’ll get widespread immunity by fall, or earlier.”
“And that will mean that just about all businesses can open, businesses can start working normally. I have a suspicion it could take a little longer.”
“Opening Disneyland will provide a big psychological boost to people in general in terms of going out and spending and knowing that things are getting back to normal.”
As for returning to offices after months of working at home: “When the employees can go back, will they want to go back? How many and to what degree? Do they want to work five days a week again, or just two or three days a week? Employers will be deciding how many employees to bring back, and how many can work from home. And there’ll be pay differentials, maybe, depending on where you work and how you work. That’s going to be serious issue.”
Puri and Woods Center co-director Mira Farka, an associate professor of economics at CSUF, in October predicted a 3.9% increase in U.S. real gross domestic product next year in their 2021 Economic Forecast, while they projected the Orange County unemployment rate to be 6.1% in 2021.
Analytical Thoughts
Mark Anderson, the recently installed chief executive of data analytics software maker Alteryx Inc. in Irvine, said companies will need to innovate faster than ever before.
“The pandemic has shown businesses that have overly complex and rigid systems are more of a hindrance than a help when you have to pivot quickly. Businesses will move further toward flexible platforms and self-service infrastructure that enables employees and businesses to turn on a dime when needed,” he said.
Sense of Security
Mike Gentile, CEO of cybersecurity company Cisoshare in San Clemente, said “Businesses that have the capital to actually build and weather the storm are going to make it. I see a really big acceleration in those companies. Those are the companies that generally use our services. We’re in them right now, those high-growth companies.”
“The other companies that can’t make it, don’t have the capital, they’re just going to be done. They’re just really going to go away.”
As for his company’s specialty of protecting computer data from hackers and other intruders: “The security needs are accelerating. There’s not enough troops out there to fight the battles.”
Legal Actions
Michele Johnson, a partner at Latham & Watkins in Costa Mesa and Global Chair of the firm’s Litigation & Trial Department, says that “Orange County is such a robust business environment, particularly in life sciences and technology, and there’s no question the legal market will remain strong.”
“As to the outlook for COVID-related legal actions, yes, I think there will be some areas in which we see increased activity. Those that will be of greatest interest in OC will likely relate to product liability and securities class actions on COVID-related developments, as well as contract disputes and business interruption claims. In addition, setting COVID aside, the change in Administration may produce regulatory and enforcement developments that impact the life sciences and technology sectors and produce related litigation.”
Solid Precedent
The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) noted that: “Orange County was the first Southern California county to fully recover from the Great Recession.”
“This indicates that while economic hardships will likely continue to grow for most Orange County residents in the short term, the county does have a history of successful economic recovery. Orange County will once again likely play a major role in the Southern California region’s overall recovery from COVID-19.”
“As in the rest of the SCAG region, low-wage and entry-level positions were disproportionally affected by the pandemic and are likely to see a much slower recovery than higher-skill, more technical positions.”
—Kevin Costelloe
