If U-Haul International Inc.’s migration trend numbers are any indicator, then Orange County got a little less crowded in the first four months of this year.
Through April, most parts of the county saw more people moving out than moving in compared with the same period a year ago, according to rental van statistics from Reno, Nev.-based U-Haul. While the Irvine area held its own, other parts of OC saw more people leave overall.
The Huntington Beach area, a hot spot last year for families moving in, saw more families move out. From January to April, the area had 4.5% more families moving out than in, compared with 10.7% more families moving in at the same time last year.
The Anaheim area did slightly better than last year but still is seeing net migration. There were 6.1% more families that moved out compared with 6.5% more families that moved out last year.
Irvine and South County remained a draw in the first fourth months, but the percentage of families moving in was lower than the year-ago period. Last year, 10.4% more families moved into the Irvine area than those moving out. This year, 4.3% more families moved in.
The migration trend numbers were calculated for three regions in OC broken down by U-Haul. For the most part, the areas are contiguous, though there are some far-flung cities lumped in each group.
The Irvine area also includes Aliso Viejo, Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, Lake Forest and Silverado Canyon. The Huntington Beach area also includes Fountain Valley and Foothill Ranch in eastern OC. The Anaheim area also includes Buena Park, Cypress, Fullerton, Garden Grove, La Habra, Los Alamitos, Orange, Placentia, Santa Ana, Yorba Linda, Westminster and two South County coastal cities, Capistrano Beach and Dana Point.
Tracking moving trucks leaving OC and California was a popular indicator during the early 1990s recession. Between 1991 and 1996 more people left OC than those that came in. The trend was reversed in 1997.
“At the time, this was an anecdotal type of evidence,” said G.U. Krueger, vice president of market research at International Housing Partners in Irvine. “Sometimes it would lead other indicators by as much as nine months to a year.”
Of course, the migration trend indicator is not a scientific study of relocation trends. For one, it excludes top-income earners who relocate using moving companies. Nor does it include low-income movers who might use their own trucks. Also, people moving in from other countries aren’t included. Last year, more than 20,000 people came to OC from other countries, according to Krueger.
While OC has seen a rash of layoffs, Krueger said he suspects the U-Haul numbers don’t necessarily signal people fleeing the county at the onset of a downturn.
“My suspicion is that migration is related to affordability,” he said. “People are in search of affordable houses near the Orange County area.”
The median home price in OC touched $332,970 in January, up 14% from a year earlier.
“The affordability wave could have set in,” Krueger said. “That is what is happening in they Bay area.” n
