Slower economic growth is likely to mean slower going next year for Orange County tourism, which is coming off a blockbuster past couple of years.
Next year, the county could see 48.9 million visitors, on par with the 48.6 million expected this year, according to forecasts presented at the recent Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference in Los Angeles.
This year’s visitors are expected to be down 1.2% from 2005.
“Flat in 2006 was good because 2005 was a banner year,” said Tiffany Urness, senior tourism specialist for California Tourism in Sacramento, at the conference.
In 2005, Walt Disney Co.’s marketing push for Disneyland’s 50th anniversary was in full force, drawing record crowds to the Anaheim theme park.
Other tourism benchmarks are strong.
Hotels are full and visitors seem to be spending more while here, according to tourism officials and market watchers.
“Overall demand is tapering off, but people who do come are paying more,” said Gary Sherwin, chief executive of the Newport Beach Conference & Visitors Bureau.
Hotel Occupancy
Hotel occupancy in OC is projected to be 73% by year’s end, up 3% from 2005, according to data from the Los Angeles office of PKF Consulting.
That’s partly due to the return of business travelers, PKF said.
A robust 2006 convention market in Anaheim is expected to put final delegate numbers at around 1.1 million by year’s end.
Fourth-quarter conventions like AARP’s Life@50+ and the American Society of Health System Pharmacists,both newcomers to Anaheim,stand to bolster what in recent years has been a soft fourth quarter for conventions.
The two trade shows alone are expected to bring 42,000 people to OC, who might also opt for tours of Disneyland, the beaches and other sights.
In all, fourth-quarter conventions stand to bring roughly 244,000 people to town, compared to just 187,800 a year ago. The estimated economic impact of fourth-quarter business is $193.2 million, compared to $148.6 million a year ago.
The numbers don’t include the California Auto Show held recently in Anaheim or Orange County Fairgrounds events, which don’t estimate attendance in advance.
Disney Efforts
Disneyland still is doing its bit to bring leisure travelers.
Halloween Time, a month of decorations, food, activities and characters in special costumes at both of Disney’s Anaheim parks, and a new marketing push, Year of a Million Dreams, are designed to keep visitors coming,though not at anniversary year levels.
Other factors could help draw tourists.
Efforts to market the county as a place for longer stays could benefit hotels, according to PKF Consulting.
Occupancy is expected to grow by 2.5% next year, reaching 73.2%.
The number of hotel rooms in the county is expected to grow by less than 2%.
“We’re at capacity,” said Bruce Baltin, senior vice president at PKF in Los Angeles. “Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange County are all at record (occupancy) highs.”
Another possible boost: the Ren & #233;e and Henry Segerstrom Concert Hall at the Orange County Performing Arts Center, which opened in September.
“The entertainment industry is always what draws people (to Southern California),” said Jack Kyser, chief economist of Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. “We got the buzz back about Southern California thanks to the Ren & #233;e & Henry Segerstrom Concert Hall,even from the New York Times.”
Restaurants and shops under way at the long-awaited GardenWalk across from Disneyland and events at the Anaheim Arena next to the convention center also could help draw visitors.
TV shows have boosted the county’s image across the country.
But “The OC story hasn’t been told as well as it could be,” said Sherwin of the Newport Beach Conference & Visitors Bureau.
Conventions
Convention business is expected to increase next year, too.
Already, there are 14 large conventions on the books for 2007, compared to nine for all of 2006.
“2007 will be a great year for Anaheim,” said Charles Ahlers, president of the Anaheim/Orange County Visitor & Convention Bureau.
Among the larger trade shows is the Travel Industry Association’s PowWow, which will bring 5,500 travel planners from around the world to see what Anaheim and OC have to offer.
“PowWow will get new eyes on our destination,” Ahlers said.
Based on figures from previous conventions in cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Orlando, Fla., PowWow generates about $3 billion in future travel planner business during its weeklong convention.
Anaheim could get about $300 million as its share.
The convention will bring an international contingent from 70 countries to the area, many of whom set itineraries for future travel tours and sell the destination to folks back home.
International visitors tend to spend roughly three times the amount domestic visitors spend when they come to OC.
There are concerns. The slowing housing market and progress of upgrades at Los Angeles International Airport are something to keep an eye on, according to Kyser.
Travel Costs Up
California Tourism’s Urness added travel costs,up 6.2% this year according to the Travel Industry Association,to the list.
PKF’s Baltin cautioned attendees to prepare for more than just moderate growth in their business plans.
“Don’t think this is normality,” he said. “Pay attention to how you’ll market in the next downturn.”
For conventions, Las Vegas remains the biggest challenger to Anaheim and other Western cities.
Anaheim’s Ahlers likened the continuing growth of the Las Vegas convention market to “an unchecked cancer.”
