The meetings and conventions industry is bracing for a downturn this year, but so far Anaheim,Orange County’s convention hub,is holding its own.
The number of citywide conventions (those using multiple hotels) is up, there have been almost no cancellations and attendance projections are nearly on par with 2008.
The question is how many of those who register will show up.
“Attendance is the question mark,” said Robert Donahue, director of groups and conventions for the Disneyland Resort.
In 2008, conventions and trade shows like International Music Product Association’s NAMM Show, Natural Products Expo West and the Academy of Management posted record attendance. This year, many show organizers will breathe a sigh of relief if those numbers shrink less than 10%.
A December forecast by Trade Show Executive magazine’s Economic Forecasting Board indicated overall trade show attendance is likely to drop 14% this quarter and 12.5% for the year. The number of companies that exhibit is expected to drop by 8.5% this quarter and 10.6% for the year.
“We don’t know what to expect in this economy,” said Tony Lee, vice president of meetings and exhibitions for the Craft & Hobby Association, which will hold its convention here in February.
Lee said pre-registration was slow compared to last year, but that more buyers from big companies have signed up, which bodes well for the business end of the show.
“Those who don’t come are the tire-kickers,” he said.
Year-Over-Year Decline
Convention sales people also say it’s tougher to get groups to sign on the dotted line, though officials are hopeful they will end the year with about the same number of groups and conventioneers as in 2008.
As of the end of December, there were 264 groups confirmed for 2009 with combined expected attendance of 902,117. That’s compared to 764 meetings and conventions with 1.25 million attendees in all of 2008.
The difference is not alarming, said Jim Kissinger, vice president of convention sales for the Anaheim/Orange County Visitor & Convention Bureau: “Forty-four percent of the meetings held during 2008 were booked in 2008,” he said.
Anaheim’s largest convention, The NAMM Show, was held last week. Show organizers said early indications were good, but some area hotels said they had fewer room reservations than in the past.
Last year the show drew more than 89,000 people to Anaheim. Many attendees lived close enough to drive to the show, so this year, some of those who previously stayed at a hotel may have chosen to commute.
Citywide conventions like The NAMM Show use multiple hotels for their exhibitors and attendees. This year, Anaheim has 42 such conventions on the books,roughly the same number as in 2008. Twenty-one of those are expected to bring 10,000 or more people to the area. Nine of those are scheduled in the first quarter.
The convention count is expanded by supplemental business booked directly with the Convention Center to fill in open dates. At the end of December, the Convention Center’s own bookings account for 36 additional multi-day groups in 2009.
The Visitor & Convention Bureau will probably need to book another 100 or so groups to match last year’s performance. That may not be an easy task in the current economic climate.
Individual hotels and other event venues also host self-contained meetings throughout the year. This year, even those groups are waiting until the last minute to book.
“For 2009, everyone is taking a wait-and-see approach,” said Brad Logsdon, director of sales and marketing at the 1,500-room Hilton Anaheim.
Any downturn in conventioneers is costly. In 2008, meetings and conventions attendees spent roughly $975 million in OC.
On a positive note, both the Hilton Anaheim and Anaheim Marriott,the largest of the city’s convention hotels,have reported few group cancellations to date.
“If they haven’t canceled yet, they’re probably not going to,” said Steve Pufpaf, director of sales and marketing for the Anaheim Marriott.
Reservations for association meetings are “healthy,” but corporate groups are looking to trim expenses, Pufpaf said.
Anaheim’s largest conventions also come from diverse sectors, some of which haven’t been hard-hit by the recession.
Natural Products Expo West, which showcases natural and organic products, represents a market that’s still seeing growth. Last year, it had 53,000 attendees and expects about the same this year.
The Medical Design & Manufacturing trade show,a combined effort of seven simultaneous shows,had 53,000 attendees last year and expects about 50,000 people here next month.
The annual Religious Education Congress is expected to bring 40,000 people to town. Attendees pay their own way, so attendance isn’t dependent on corporate budgets, though personal hardship could play a role.
The United Spirit Association brings various cheerleading competitions to Anaheim annually, to the tune of 33,000 people in all. Those competitions aren’t subject to the whims of the stock market or boardroom decisions.
Similarly, the 30,000-person California Dental Association convention should still post strong numbers because its members rely on this convention for some of their required continuing education credits and typically pay their own way to the event.
Other conventions set to bring 15,000 or more people to OC include:
– Craft & Hobby Association, 20,000
– Spirit Team cheerleading group, 20,000
– Big West Basketball tournament, 16,000
– ASIS, an association of security professionals, 16,000
– The Episcopal Church, Produce Marketing Association, and Helicopter Association, 15,000 each
Retention is as big a factor as initial booking, and Anaheim’s record from 2008 is promising.
Newcomer American Library Association drew 22,000 in its first Anaheim convention last year and rebooked for 2012. The Association of PeriOperative Nurses rebooked for 2016. The Academy of Management had record-breaking attendance of almost 10,000 and rebooked for 2016.
Major sectors represented on this year’s convention calendar (see page 31) aren’t markedly different from past years’. Healthcare and medical groups, sports, education groups and professional associations dominate the calendar.
Notably absent this year: the government sector and real estate-related meetings. Many state government meetings have been canceled or put on hold. In real estate, the Irving, Texas-based National Association of Professional Mortgage Women is one of just two professional groups scheduled.
New and returning conventions are drawn to Anaheim by its affordability, the number of hotels within walking distance of the convention center, the convention center itself and the Disneyland Resort, according to market watchers.
Those groups that have a large local member base choose OC because they get higher attendance from the region. Others like the proximity to major companies that may exhibit at the shows or provide opportunities for attendees to see their operations.
New and returning conventions also say they appreciate the marketing assistance offered by the visitor and convention bureau to attract more attendees.
“We spent time, effort and resources on a stepped-up attendance promotion plan because of the economy,” said Hugh Easley, vice president of meetings and expositions for Ohio-based National Association of College Stores, which has a new convention for Anaheim this year.
Easley said pre-registration numbers were encouraging as of late December.
“We’re fortunate to have attendance close to where we were last year, and marketing is a big part of that,” he said.
Good Location
Anaheim’s proximity to international markets also is attractive.
Alexandria, Va.-based ASIS International, an organization of security professionals, is another newcomer this year. Vice President of Education Susan Melnicove said worldwide accessibility was a big factor in choosing OC because roughly 25% of its 25,000 attendees come from overseas.
“We also like that it’s in the middle of a densely populated area with so many Fortune 500 companies and a huge drive-in market for those who want to just come to see the trade show,” she said.
Similarly, Chicago-based Institute of Food Technologists is returning because of Anaheim’s proximity to a strong food production market on the West Coast and easy access for members from the Asia-Pacific region.
Susan Andronowitz, director of meeting operations for the Institute of Food Technologists, said Anaheim is “one of the few true destination cities that can host us” with the institute’s space requirements.
The group plans to do extra promotion to potential attendees, emphasizing the benefits of attending during a recession.
Returning conventions also include the Barbershop Harmony Society, Arlington, Va.-based National Industrial Transportation League and Denver-based Financial Planning Association.
The Barbershop Harmony Society was last here in 1999 and will bring about 10,000 people to town over the July 4 holiday.
“It’s a very family-oriented convention, so the presence of Disney and other attractions is a significant factor in (members) deciding to come,” said John Schneider, director of events.
The National Industrial Transportation League was last here in 2005.
“We love that the hotels are in walking distance of the Convention Center and don’t require shuttle buses,” said Vice President Ellie Gilanshah. “That makes it easy to network, and that’s what (our attendees) come for.”
The group expects 3,000 people.
