With air cargo in the LA area expected to triple in the next 20 years, the big question is what happens to the overload?
The question has taken on added significance with last week’s passage in Orange County of Measure F, which casts further doubt on the prospects of converting the former El Toro Marine base into a commercial airport.
Los Angeles International Airport is slated for expansion and should be able to accommodate some of the increase. But even proponents of the multibillion-dollar LAX expansion plan concede that the airport won’t be able to handle all of the expected traffic.
The only solution is for other airports to take on more cargo.
“The air cargo will have to be spread around,” said Mike DiGirolamo, director of operations for Los Angeles World Airports, or LAWA, which operates LAX and three other regional airfields. “All of the airports have to take their fair share.”
There are four other airports in the region already taking on some air cargo (Ontario, Burbank, John Wayne in Orange County and Fox Field in Lancaster), and four former military air bases in various stages of converting to airports. These include George Air Force Base near Victorville, Norton Air Force Base outside San Bernardino, March Air Force Base near Riverside and El Toro.
One of those former military airfields already has started operations: George Air Force Base has been renamed Southern California Logistics Airport and SwissGlobalCargo is already running regular flights in and out of the facility.
LAWA is also studying whether expansion of cargo capacity at Ontario Airport, which it owns, is merited. Currently, Ontario handles nearly 500,000 tons of air cargo a year, mostly through United Parcel Service’s regional hub there.
“We have enough capacity, if you count in those former military bases,” said Mike Armstrong, senior aviation specialist with the Southern California Association of Governments, which projected the tripling of regional air cargo in its 1998 transportation plan.
But that’s a big “if.” Besides the uncertainties of El Toro, Norton and March also have been slower to develop into airports than proponents had hoped.
What’s more, all these former military bases are at least 50 miles away from downtown Los Angeles, which means added trucking costs for those who rely on air cargo shipments. Air cargo carriers,be they airlines with belly cargo or dedicated carriers like UPS and Federal Express,may not be willing to set up operations so far afield, especially when 80% of the air cargo coming into the region is consumed locally.
“The big issue is how the cargo is going to be distributed once it lands, particularly if it’s at these remote Inland Empire airports,” said Jack Driscoll, former director of Los Angeles World Airports and now a private consultant. “Most of the high-consumption customers are in the western portion of the LA basin, far away from these new airports. And while these airports can lure cargo with cheaper land and warehouse space, it means higher trucking costs on the back end.”
Driscoll and others say that equation may change as congestion mounts at LAX. In today’s economy, with such a high premium placed on “just-in-time” delivery, having to wait a day or two to get cargo through mounting backlogs at LAX could prompt carriers to look elsewhere.
“Even with the expansion at LAX, if the other airports don’t come on line as quickly as possible, there will be more pressure at LAX,” DiGirolamo said. “Flights will be rescheduled, causing delays.”
Some air cargo traffic may be forced out of LAX altogether.
“LAX will increasingly specialize in international air cargo, because that’s where the international flights go,” said Stephen Erie, a UC San Diego political science professor who has studied Southern California’s air transportation issues. “Some of the domestic cargo operations will likely have to move out.”
Of course, expanding LAX air cargo capacity can hardly be taken for granted. Already, the city of El Segundo is suing LAWA over a United Airlines plan for a $30 million, 180,000-square-foot air cargo facility, which was approved by the LA City Council last December. That’s just one part of the intense opposition expected as the $8 billion to $12 billion LAX Master Plan expansion moves forward.
LAX already handles two-thirds of the region’s air cargo and virtually all of the air cargo in LA County. And even if the expansion goes through, LAX at best could only double its current capacity of 2 million tons a year by 2015, which means it could accommodate just over one-third of the expected 6 million-ton increase anticipated by 2020. And that assumes the long-delayed expansion plan avoids costly legal challenges by opponents and actually gets off the ground.
If the expansion effort is delayed and congestion at LAX mounts, some of the smaller operators could be forced to relocate to other regional airports. Some carriers might even have to abandon the LA market altogether.
“In a worst-case scenario, you could see more of the cargo going to Oakland or Phoenix or other airports, and then being trucked down here at tremendous cost,” DiGirolamo said. “That would have a negative job impact and also raise costs for consumers.” n
Fine is a staff reporter at the Los Angeles Business Journal.
