Next Stage for Recall: Who’s In, Who’s Out
By HOWARD FINE
The race to line up candidates in the recall battle against Gov. Gray Davis has touched off the most intense political scramble the state has seen in decades.
An election to recall Davis likely is headed to the ballot either in November or March. The two critical dynamics are timing and poll results,specifically when the election would be held and where Davis and the recall effort stand among likely voters as the filing deadline nears.
For Democrats, the question is whether,and when,to anoint one of their own if it appears the recall will pass.
“It would be one hell of a crapshoot not to run somebody and count on the anti-recall campaign to win the day,” said Hal Dash, president of Cerrell Associates, a Democrat political consultant.
For Republicans, the issue is whether to unify around one candidate to avoid splitting the vote. The official party leadership wants a single candidate. But that might not stop others from jumping in.
“The party leadership cannot force people not to run,” said Ken Khachigian, a Republican strategist advising Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista), the conservative car alarm magnate turned congressman who bankrolled the recall petition campaign.
Both sides face the prospect of tight timelines to make these decisions. The filing deadline for a Nov. 4 election is Sept. 6.
Since there’s little doubt that enough signatures have been gathered,at least 1.6 million have been turned in to county registrars, easily more than the 897,158 required,whether the election is called for November or March probably will depend on the outcome of legal challenges to the signature gathering process.
Last week, recall opponents filed a lawsuit in state court charging several of the petition gatherers lived out-of-state, which, if true, would violate state law.
California companies weren’t available for the work. Possible explanations: Davis and his allies put pressure on the companies, or they were hired for other work to keep them from collecting recall signatures.
In a November special election, conservative Republicans are considered likely to be a disproportionately large share of the electorate.
An election on the March primary ballot is generally considered a boost for Davis, since large numbers of Democrats are expected to turn out for the Democratic presidential primary.
As for who decides to run, much could depend on poll numbers.
Last week, the Field Poll showed 51% of likely voters supporting the recall and 43% opposed.
If support for the recall continues to grow and moves beyond 55%, candidates on both sides are likely to conclude that Davis likely will be recalled, and they will jump in.
“If it appears that Davis will lose the recall,and by lose I mean upwards of 60%,it’s anybody’s guess as to which Democrats will enter the race, but count on at least one of them entering,” said Darry Sragow, a Los Angeles-based Democratic consultant.
Indeed, reports surfaced last week of closed-door meetings among top-level Democrats addressing this scenario.
In one such meeting, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) and the top-ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives, told California colleagues that the party needed to get behind a candidate who could win.
For months, a consensus candidate has been U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Polls show that she would be a formidable candidate. But Feinstein has said she has no interest in running. And because she fought off a recall challenge while mayor of San Francisco, some Democrats doubt that she would step in to run if asked.
So now attention is turning to Leon Panetta, a former congressman and chief of staff to former President Bill Clinton. He is being touted as a “caretaker” candidate who would serve the remaining three years of Davis’ term and then step aside.
But if someone such as Panetta were to run, it might be difficult to keep other Democrats off the ballot, analysts say.
Democrats who don’t have a lot of money and believe they might not be able to survive a bruising primary campaign in 2006 might be tempted to run this time.
Of all the Democratic candidates, Treasurer Phil Angelides and Attorney General Bill Lockyer have the deepest campaign war chests in preparation for that 2006 campaign.
Of course, if new polls show that the recall might lose,even narrowly,Democrats likely would stay off the ballot.
On the Republican side, the effort by state GOP chairman Duf Sundehim to have a single consensus candidate on the ballot already may have failed.
For starters, Issa has declared he’s running for governor and set up a campaign office. Former gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bill Simon said he intends to run, though he hasn’t formally declared. So has Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks).
The real question is whether and when the two “big guns” on the Republican side,former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger,will jump in. With their name recognition and popularity, these are considered the two Republican front-runners.
Riordan said last month he won’t run if Schwarzenegger enters the race. And Schwarzenegger has put off his decision,originally due around mid-July,until next month.
Finally, Assemblyman Keith Richman (R-Northridge) said on July 11 that he, too, was considering running in the recall election.
Fine is a staff reporter with the Los Angeles Business Journal.
