Recent brownouts in the Bay area are a warning for Orange County companies: It could happen here.
“We’re pushing the system very hard right now,” said Severin Borenstein, who is director of the Energy Institute at UC Berkeley and a professor of business economics.
Southern California Edison officials are trying to not alarm customers, but at the same time they are warning businesses to watch the thermometers for signs of a heat wave.
“It will be a tight summer,” said Ron Nunnally, director of federal regulations and contracts for Southern California Edison, which supplies most of Orange County.
The key temperature to watch for is 100 degrees Fahrenheit along the coast, with Riverside and San Bernardino reaching 105 to 110. If such a heat wave lasts more than two or three days, brownouts are expected.
At that time, the utilities are expected to shut down electricity to certain communities for an hour at a time. “There will be no warning,” said Nunnally. “We cannot notify customers in time. There will be media advisories.”
Some companies around Orange County are preparing to reduce their energy demand or planning what to do if there is a shutdown. In Orange County, 250 large electrical users,companies and public entities like schools,have volunteered to close or reduce their consumption if a heat wave persists. The companies involved have an agreement with Southern California Edison.
“These are our larger customers who have some flexibility in their demand,” said Lynda Ziegler, director of business and regulatory planning. “The companies don’t have to interrupt all of their loads. They defer some of their activities to later in the day.”
The shortage of power is a result of rising demand and flat supply. The booming economy has driven up demand 2% to 3% statewide, led by Riverside and San Diego counties. The peak demand for energy in California last year was 45,574 megawatts and this year is expected to be 46,250 megawatts.
But, there hasn’t been an increase in supply. New plants are not expected to come online for a couple of years.
The state has the capacity to produce 38,000 megawatts of energy at any one time and can buy another 7,000 to 8,400 megawatts from other states. This covers the expected highest level of demand, but doesn’t leave a margin for unexpected spikes.
State officials like to keep 7% of the energy supply in reserve. Much of that,about 3,000 megawatts,can be saved by companies who voluntarily have signed up to shut down when it gets too hot. n
