The outlook for Orange County’s economy remains solid, despite a predicted easing in home prices and rising oil prices, according to California State University, Fullerton’s 2006 economic forecast.
A “moderate decline” in OC housing prices of 2% to 5% is seen in 2006, according to Anil Puri, dean of the College of Business and Economics at Cal State Fullerton.
“I don’t see evidence of a bubble though prices are high, and a little bit out of line with the rest of the country,” he said on Tuesday.
The peak for home prices already may have been reached or is close to it, Puri said.
The median price of a home sold in here in September rose 14% from a year ago to $610,000 but was down slightly from August’s peak of $617,000, according to La Jolla-based market tracker DataQuick Information Systems.
Besides housing, there seems to be “a lot of anxiety and conflict” about the direction of the overall economy with rising interest rates, oil prices, hurricanes and the trade and budget deficits.
“It’s not clear which way the economy will move,” he said.
Puri said he rules out the prospect of a near-term recession: “I don’t see the data or any evidence of a significant weakening of the economy.”
Locally, unemployment is projected for 3.8% this year and 2006, and 3.7% in 2007, the lowest rate of any Southern California county.
OC exports have grown this year, Puri said. Last year, the county exported $14.9 billion worth of products and services. This year, exports are expected to rise 9.4% to $16.3 billion, and by 14.8% in 2006 and 8% in 2007.
Cal State Fullerton also said it is launching a $15 million campaign to help build the business college’s new home on campus, and to create endowments for student scholarships, academic programs and centers.
Significant pledges for the business school so far have come from: Steven G. Mihaylo, chief executive of Arizona’s Inter-Tel Inc. ($4.5 million); Costa Mesa-based Emulex Corp.’s Paul Folino ($1 million) and former an unnamed oil industry executive ($2 million).
To date, $11.7 million has been raised.
