After stumbling badly in early tests, Boeing Co. looks to be back on target with the development of its next-generation Delta IV rocket, potentially pulling a $1.67 billion Air Force contract back from the brink of being handed over to a competitor.
With the success of recent tests, Boeing now expects to be able to meet the Air Force’s target of an initial May 2002 satellite launch, the first of 21 called for in the contract, which extends through 2006. As recently as February, the Air Force had threatened to give its contract,a portion at first and then potentially all of it,to Lockheed Martin Corp. if Boeing did not prove it could launch its much-anticipated next-generation booster.
Losing even a portion of the contract would have been a blow to Boeing, which is refocusing its operations on satellites, as well as military aircraft and missiles, while placing less of an emphasis on its bread-and-butter commercial airlines manufacturing business.
In the wake of a drop in commercial aircraft sales,from 66% of its overall revenue in 1999 to 61% last year,the loss of the Air Force contract “would have been devastating,” said Argus Research Co. analyst Kevin Tynan. “You can’t sneeze at ($1.67 billion). Losing part of that contract wouldn’t have meant the end of Boeing, but it would have hurt.”
However, a newly reworked main engine built at Boeing’s Rocketdyne unit in Canoga Park passed a series of so-called hot-fire tests in the past two months, putting the program back on track. In the tests, the engine was ignited for 15 seconds, generating the equivalent of 14 million horsepower.
Testing took a nosedive last summer when the turbine blades in some of the 12 test engines at Edward Air Force Base and the John C. Stennis Space Center in Mississippi cracked, proving they could not withstand the vibration created by the engine’s firing, according to Rocketdyne spokesman Dan Beck.
Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin’s Atlas V satellite-launching rocket program has advanced without any difficulties, Air Force officials said.
“We’ve advised Boeing that in order to protect the government’s interests, to get a satellite in orbit on time, we started down the road to prepare it to be launched on an Atlas V, if needed,” said Air Force Col. Bob Saxer, director of the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle systems program. “(But) we’re very optimistic that Boeing will launch the first satellite when we need them to do it. In the last few months, we think they’ve turned the corner and are starting to make really good progress. We’ve seen great performance out of the engine. It will be a challenge. But so far, we’ve liked what we’ve seen.”
Both companies were awarded $500 million development contracts in October 1998. Boeing also received a $1.67 billion contract for 21 launches, while Lockheed Martin is under a $500 million contract to launch seven defense satellites from 2004 through 2007.
For its program, the Air Force chose two primary contractors, each serving as a backup for any jobs that the other fails to fulfill. Thus, if Boeing cannot make its May 2002 blastoff date, Lockheed Martin will take over Boeing’s responsibilities on a launch-by-launch basis, in addition to the seven liftoffs it already is contracted to complete.
Building and launching a rocket costs an average of $75 million, but can cost more than $150 million if the payload is so heavy that a strap-on booster rocket is required to get it into orbit.
The Delta IV’s problems already have forced a delay of its first commercial satellite launch, originally scheduled for this month, but now set for March 2002.
But Boeing officials downplayed the delay, citing the need to be accurate rather than timely.
“We view the Delta IV program as the future of our expendable launch business,” said Walt Rice, a Boeing spokesman. “The most important thing to us and our customers is that when we do have our first (commercial) launch, it’s successful. Each launch needs to be successful if you want to stay in business. In the launch business, one of the most important factors is reliability.”
Preparedness for that commercial launch will play a large role in the Pentagon’s determination of whether Boeing gets to keep the contract for the first defense launch three months later. That decision is expected to come in June or July.
“If there are any kinds of major problems, we will have to go back and reassess their entire ability to get to the first launch date,” said Saxer. “(Lockheed Martin) has not had any real technical problems at all. Their program has been on schedule from the beginning. All we’re doing right now is protecting our options.”
Lockheed Martin’s rocket, the Atlas V, has not only avoided design and development problems to date, its sister rocket, the Atlas IIIA, boosted by a Russian-made engine, lifted a commercial satellite into space in May. n
Greenberg is a staff reporter at the Los Angeles Business Journal.
