Airport? What Airport?
Editorial by Rick Reiff
PLANS FOR THE GREAT PARK INCLUDE 45 HOLES OF GOLF. That buys my vote!
For a little more serious look at last week’s announcement of the Navy-Irvine plans for development of the former El Toro Marine base, see below.
Sounds ‘Great’
THE DEVIL, OF COURSE, IS IN THE DETAILS. And the devil could still spoil what appears, at first blush, to be a huge winner for Orange County.
The plan for developing the former El Toro Marine base that was put forward last week is conceptually brilliant,simply put, private development (residential and commercial) on 700 acres will be leveraged to pay for a world-class park and other public uses on the remaining 3,000 acres. (My figures exclude 1,000 acres of wildlife refuge already set aside on the base.) It also appears that the plan intends to generate a little additional revenue from such things as a university taking 276 acres for a campus and from private operations of some recreational facilities.
But the plan is so far devoid of detail. Those details include everything from how much a buyer will have to spend to ready land for development to how much in public-benefit fees will be extracted from the developers. Those details will determine whether the Navy gets what it wants for the land, whatever that amount might be, and whether the development can pay, as intended, for the envisioned public uses. Rough ball estimates of what the Navy might fetch range from $300 million to more than a billion, but they’re all guesses right now. And the Navy says the toxic mess will be cleaned up, whatever that might cost.
Real estate consultant Richard Gollis says he already has interested parties lining up to bid on the base, but they so far lack the information needed to make an offer. “We haven’t had a look under the hood yet,” he said. “In fact, we can’t even see through the windows to tell if the upholstery is torn.” Those details will presumably emerge in the coming weeks as the General Services Administration prepares to take bids.
But a key point that has already emerged is that the Navy won’t challenge Irvine’s intent to implement the spirit of the county-passed Measure W, which by shielding more than 80% of the base from private development dramatically reduces its sales value. The Navy is defining its objective of “an orderly sale to produce the highest value for the taxpayers” within the limitations imposed by Measure W.
And for those still litigating for an airport, Navy assistant secretary H.T. Johnson sent the message that the Navy considers the airport plan to be deader than a spent cartridge.
Great Park or bust!
Winners and Losers
WITH THE CAVEAT NOTED ABOVE ABOUT THE DEVIL BEING IN THE details, here is a snap call on who benefits and who doesn’t from the Navy-Irvine Great Park plan.
Winners
& #149; Larry Agran. Of 4,700 acres on the base, 4,000 wind up as wildlife preserve, an urban park, golf courses, athletic fields, equestrian stables, other recreational facilities, a little agriculture, a veterans cemetery, some institutional uses, a library, a college campus and maybe a museum. By any fair accounting, if this comes off, Irvine’s mayor has delivered on his “Great Park” promise. How does Supervisor Agran sound? Congressman Agran?
& #149; Nature lovers. They get an open-space corridor that creates a continuous wildlife refuge from Cleveland National Forest to the ocean.
& #149; Irvine and its citizens. What a gift they get.
& #149; The rest of Orange County and its residents. Ditto on the gift.
& #149; Donald Bren. The Irvine Company chief gets a huge, low-density amenity next to his ranch, and it doesn’t cost him a dime.
Losers
& #149; Airport advocates. Face it, folks, we’re toast.
& #149; U.S. taxpayers. Despite what the Navy is saying, I don’t see how a Great Park for Orange County doesn’t translate into a Huge Hole for the federal Treasury, to the tune of a billion bucks or more.
, Rick Reiff
