SOME THOUGHTS AND OBSERVATIONS ON LAST WEEK’S STUNNER:
– The Democrats didn’t win, the Republicans lost. The country now has a red party that has lost its way, and a blue party that has no way.
– It wasn’t the economy, stupid, because if it were, the Republicans would’ve won. It was mostly Iraq.
– The national election was not a repudiation of conservatism,conservatives repudiated the Republicans. Early analyses I’ve seen point to disaffected conservatives staying at home, and motivated liberals turning out. One piece of evidence: Contrary to form, voter turnout was higher in Los Angeles, 45%, than in Orange County, 37%.
– One of the winners was the legacy of Bush I. Does anybody still want to argue that Bush I was wrong to not pursue Saddam Hussein into Baghdad? Or that Bush II’s invasion,whether motivated by bad intelligence or willfulness,was a mistake? I hate to say we told you so, but we told you so.
Prior to the 2003 invasion, Mike Lyster and I editorialized against it, warning, “A war on Iraq is at best a costly diversion from the war on terrorism, at worst a miscalculation that will make it even harder to combat terror in the years ahead.”
With Bush II’s “neocons” deserting him like rats from a ship, and Donald Rumsfeld out, Bush I’s people, such as Baker and Gates, are stepping in, hopefully to figure out a way to extricate us from the Iraq quagmire.
– The presidency of Bush II is in decline. With Democrats controlling Congress, at least some of his tax cuts will expire and there will be pressure to slap regulations on business,are you ready, drug makers? There will be no more Alitos or Robertses appointed to the High Court. Private savings accounts, faith-based initiatives and other market-driven concepts, already a fading memory, are dead.
– At his post-election press conference, Bush looked and sounded like a guy who has thrown in the towel. He appeared sharp and confident only when sparring with the media,apparently you can wing it when you’ve got nothing left to lose. His admission that he had lied about Rumsfeld’s impending departure,so as not to affect the election, he said, for whose benefit is unclear,was staggering. And no doubt dispiriting or enraging to some supporters, including perhaps a few congressmen who went down last week defending the president’s heretofore stay-the-course approach in Iraq.
– Divided national government and a lame-duck president should mean two years of gridlock ahead. Let’s hope so. It will be an improvement over the recent waywardness. But on the off chance that a chastened Bush and empowered Democrats answer the call for “bipartisan cooperation,” then grab your wallet. In Washington, bipartisanship usually produces more spending and higher taxes.
– But there is one area where cooperation might work,immigration. The hardliners, including OC’s GOP delegation, will howl. But just as President Clinton relied on the Republicans to pass NAFTA, Bush now might be able to strike a deal with the Democrats for immigration reform. If strict border security is matched with conditional amnesty and a guest-worker program, Bush will have something positive for his legacy. The Democrats could scuttle a deal by succumbing to their natural inclination to obstruct, but I suspect they’ll want to work with Bush on at least this one issue, just to show the American people they can actually govern.
– As for the California results, Arnold is a political phenomenon without coattails. Although never in doubt, the governor’s re-election still was welcome news for business. The New Arnold is Early Gray Davis,a moderate who will check the anti-business excesses of the Legislature.
– Californians showed that they’ve soured on tax-raising ballot propositions, but they still love to borrow. I’m surprised Proposition 90 failed, facing establishment opposition and needing an affirmative vote at the bottom of a wearying state ballot, was the victim of voter fatigue.
– Hooray for Steve Poizner, incoming state insurance commissioner. He’s proof that a non-movie-star Republican who is socially moderate, qualified, intelligent, personable, savvy and self-funded can win statewide office in California over a Democratic eggplant. Had Tom McClintock won his lieutenant governor’s race, he would have been the GOP’s leading gubernatorial candidate in 2008. Nobody would be better medicine for California’s bloated budget than fearless Tom, but his social conservatism,exploited this election by John Garamendi,presumably would make McClintock a huge underdog against the Dem’s 2008 gubernatorial frontrunner, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Poizner may now emerge as the leading GOP candidate, and possibly not quite as huge an underdog.
– In OC, the biggest story was the renewal of the Measure M sales tax. Needing 67.7% approval, M got 68.7%,an impressive feat in a tax-averse county and against the vigorous editorial opposition of the Orange County Register. It shows how much OCers hate traffic. And it was a tribute to the demonstrated accomplishments of the existing Measure M,improved travel times and projects completed ahead of schedule and within budget.
– Voter rejection of Newport Beach’s no-growth Measure X was a shocker. The coastal community put sharp restrictions on development six years ago with passage of the Greenlight initiative. Supporters called Measure X “Greenlight II” while detractors called it “Greenlight I on steroids.” It’s still near impossible to build a hotel or office building in Newport Beach, but X’s defeat means home additions are safe.
,Rick Reiff
