Signs of slowing in the local housing market and in the national economy are registering with Orange County chief executives, business owners and managers.
The group’s fourth-quarter outlook markedly declined from that of the past few quarters, though overall optimism about the local economy still is solid, according to California State University, Fullerton’s quarterly business expectations index.
The index is at 69.9, down from 81.7 or higher for the past three quarters. A reading above 50 indicates executives expect growth in the coming quarter.
The index hit a high of 94.9 in summer 2004 and a low of 31.6 at the start of the Iraq war in spring 2003. Before the fourth quarter, the index’s recent low point was 75.9 a year ago after Hurricane Katrina.
The fourth-quarter reading “may indicate a peak in the business cycle,” said Anil Puri, dean of the College of Business and Economics at Cal State Fullerton.
“It doesn’t mean a recession is on the way,” he said. “We’ll have to wait a quarter or two to see if there is an actual slowdown.”
For more on this story, see the Oct. 2 edition of the Business Journal.
