Chapman University in Orange said Orange County employment in five key industry sectors remains “well below” prerecession levels and that payrolls will grow by 2.5% next year after finishing 2015 up 3.2%.
A 2.5% gain would add about 39,000 jobs in Orange County in 2016 for a total of about 1.6 million.
The numbers were part of Chapman’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research annual economic forecast for Orange County, California and the U.S., that it presented to about 1,500 attendees gathered at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa.
The center said California would boost jobs 2.4% in 2016 after a 2.9% increase this year.
A better job market “should induce household formation and home-buying” the report said, though affordability has declined since 2012, despite low mortgage rates.
It projects Orange County home prices to rise 2.5% and statewide prices to increase 3.7%—both numbers slightly below 2015 increases—and interest rates nationally are set to rise as well.
The forecast also said low inventories of unsold homes and continued new-home starts nationwide will add to a generally healthy U.S. economic picture buoyed by a drop in oil prices that’s expected to help grow the gross domestic product next year by 2.8%.
The report called out consumer spending as the main engine for U.S. GDP growth next year, driven by low gas prices, lower debt levels, and more household wealth.
Exports will also increase at moderate rates, the report said.
