Orange County’s recent movement into the next tier of reopenings under the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy comes as the region experiences its second downward trend in new COVID-19 cases since the pandemic hit the area in mid-March.
In the first few weeks of May, the county was among the earliest in the state to post recovering COVID statistics, and was able to reopen as a result, but an ensuing spike—its largest to date—in new cases and hospitalizations in July forced another shutdown.
Now, the county appears to be back on the mend, and a variety of businesses are reaping the benefits as new reopening guidelines ease restrictions on various services and sectors.
In the five weeks ending Sept. 8, there were 11,930 new COVID cases reported in the county.
This figure, which includes additional cases that were logged following a previous backlog caused by state reporting lags and glitches, marks a 51% decline from the five weeks prior, when there were 24,223 new cases reported.
The most recent period is about three times the number of total new cases in the five weeks ending May 26, around the time when OC saw its first attempt at reopening. Still, the county has seen sharper declines in cases and other COVID-19 metrics in recent weeks, with new cases down 34% in the two weeks ending Sept. 8 from the two weeks prior, which brings the region back to a run rate of the average level of the five-week period ending June 30 (see graph).
Tier System
These improvements have been recognized by the state, with Orange County among the first five counties to move out of the most restrictive tier in a new monitoring system rolled out last month.
“As we move into the state’s less stringent ‘red tier’ designation, the restrictions on our business sectors will be significantly relaxed,” Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel said in a statement.
The system designates four tiers, ranging from the most restrictive “purple” tier where the virus is “widespread” in a county to the least restrictive “yellow” tier, denoting “minimal” virus transmission.
It categorizes each county based on two dominant metrics: new daily cases and positive testing rate.
The new system was implemented to emphasize a “simple, slow and stringent” reopening approach, according to Gov. Gavin Newsom, and was expected to help prevent a new spike of cases and hospitalizations like the one that occurred in July after the state last announced reopening plans.
OC was among 38 counties placed in the purple tier on Aug. 28 when the governor introduced the new system, with counties falling into this category if they have more than seven new daily cases per 100,000 residents, and a testing percentage above 8%.
After nearly two weeks of falling case numbers and a positive testing rate, the county was placed in the next tier down, known as the “red” tier, signifying the virus is “substantial” rather than “widespread” in the county.
In this tier, counties must have between four and seven daily new cases per 100,000 residents and a positive test rate between 5% and 8%.
Last Tuesday, when the county was moved into the red tier, it had 5.2 daily new cases per 100,000 residents. OC also had a positive test rate of 4.2%, besting the state’s requirements for the red tier.
Each county must stay in each tier for at least three weeks, and maintain the next tier’s case and testing requirements for two consecutive weeks in order to move out of their current tier, and enter into additional reopening phases.
To enter the next tier—“orange” or “moderate” transmission—Orange County must have 1 to 3.9 new daily cases per 100,000 residents and a 2% to 4.9% testing rate; to progress into the final “yellow” or “minimal” tier, the county must have less than one daily new case per 100,000 residents and a positive testing rate below 2%.
“With our continued hard work, I am confident that we will continue trending in the right direction and move into the Orange tier in the not too distant future,” Steel said.
It’s not just case and testing data that’s shining a new optimistic light on OC.
Local hospitalization and ICU figures are significantly lower than their peak-July levels, and are nearing closer to the lower numbers seen in May.
There were 242 hospitalizations and 70 ICU patients as of Sept. 8, which is down 66% and 71%, respectively, from the highs of 722 and 245 hit in mid-July.
Business Operations
Businesses that were previously shuttered or only operating outdoors—like movie theaters, restaurants, gyms and nail and skincare salons—were given the green light to open limited new indoor operations last week under the red tier designation.
Other businesses, such as shopping centers and retailers, have been able to increase indoor capacity.
Schools, unable to open under the most restrictive tier, can now open with 25% capacity in the red tier. The soonest local schools could open for in-person teaching is Sept. 22.
Theme parks, like Disneyland and Knott’s Berry Farm, were not included in the business sector guidance list for any tier. It is possible the parks could reopen some outdoor operations in stages, though indoor rides are unlikely to be permitted.
In the next tier, expect additional openings and increased capacity for local businesses.
