Numbers Games
THE LATEST FLIGHT OF ANTI-AIRPORT IRRATIONALITY CONCERNS AIR passenger estimates for the Southern California region.
A May report from the Southern California Association of Governments mislabeled a number, thereby suggesting that Orange County accounted for an estimated 16 million of the takeoffs and arrivals at the region’s airports last year, when the report’s figure should have been 12 million. John Wayne handled 7 million passengers, so there’s an apparent difference over just how much “extra” air demand OC is generating.
The anti-El Toro spin machine has kicked into overdrive, contending that this screwup discredits the whole argument about Orange County needing more air capacity (other than maybe stretching out John Wayne and turning it into a 24-hour operation.)
Nonsense. Planners estimate and bureaucrats blunder, so what else is new? The numbers that count are the ones in the marketplace. Flights at John Wayne are more expensive than those at LAX or Ontario. Commutes are getting longer, and flight delays are more frequent. That’s reality, and that tells you all you really need to know about the supply-demand imbalance.
Still, at the risk of telling you more than you want to know about this silly numbers squabble, but just so you understand what the flap is about, here’s how you arrive at the discrepant figures: SCAG’s consultant calculated that in 1996, OC accounted for 18% of the region’s air travelers. If you apply that percentage to the 89 million passengers at Southland airports last year, you come up with 16 million. However, if you subtract the 22 million connecting passengers and apply the 18% figure to the resulting number of 67 million, you get 12 million.
You can argue either number, really, or something in-between. One argument for counting connecting flights is that they are a reflection of the entire region’s economic activity and should be apportioned to each county accordingly. There’s also an argument that the 18% share estimate for OC is too low, since it was made in 1996 and OC’s economy has outgrown the region as a whole since that time.
Bottom line, John Wayne doesn’t come close to meeting the county’s air demand, and even a wrenching expansion would only enable it to meet current demand, at best. With air travel continuing to rise (a forecasted 3.6% a year for the next 12 years, according to the FAA), the case for more capacity is clear.
