The good news: Economists see a better 2009 than 2008 for Orange County.
The bad news is things won’t feel a whole lot better.
The county is projected to see another year of job losses, falling home prices, little construction, fewer tourists and falling sales of autos, building materials and other products.
But none of the projected declines are seen as being as bad as in 2008.
Next year, employment is expected to fall by 9,130 jobs, or by 0.6% to 1.48 million workers. This year, the county’s on track to lose about 24,000 jobs, a 1.6% decline that’s the worst since the early 1990s.
The downturn is predicted to hold for the first half of 2009 with a subtle rebound later, according to economists.
2009 could be a transition year in which the bloodletting of 2008 gives way in earnest to acquisitions and other deals as companies and investors jump on bargains.
The housing market is likely to see further cleansing next year as foreclosed homes dominate sales as they have this year.
Fear seems to be turning to commercial real estate, where some predict a wave of falling prices, bad loans, foreclosures,and opportunities for investors.
Unlike the last recession earlier this decade, technology is projected to hold up better than other sectors with growth, albeit slower than in years past.
We look at nine key parts of the county’s economy and what to expect in 2009 in our annual forecast issue.
It starts with technology on page 5 and continues through page 14.
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Michael Lyster
