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Budget Fallout Set to Dominate; Tunnel Plan as New El Toro?

Budget Fallout Set to Dominate; Tunnel Plan as New El Toro?

By DANIEL D. WILLIAMS

How to make do with less? That’s the big question for government agencies in 2003.

Earlier this month, Gov. Gray Davis outlined $10 billion in budget cuts in a bid to address the state’s budget shortfall, now estimated at about $35 billion.

“In times like these,” Davis said, “everyone must be part of the solution.”

Look for the cuts to play out across the board. Education and transportation are in for billion-dollar-plus hits statewide.

A decade ago, when California faced an $11 billion budget gap, Sacramento balanced the books by taking back nearly $4 billion in local subsidies. The result: layoffs and scaled-back programs.

Economists don’t see government job losses locally next year. They project public employment to grow 1.7% next year to 157,809 people, according to Chapman University.

Increased defense spending along with projected economic growth should drive job gains.

November’s elections will bring some changes to the political landscape next year.

Hispanics, which make up a third of the county’s population, made gains in Anaheim, Santa Ana and La Habra. Anaheim, which is nearly half Hispanic, went from having no Latinos on its council to two. Both Santa Ana and La Habra count Hispanic majorities on their councils.

In Irvine, political rivals Christina Shea and Larry Agran are set to square off over development and other issues after Shea pulled off a down-to-the-wire win against Agran ally Mitch Goldstone.

Watch for posturing by Sheriff Mike Carona. After helping Arnold Schwarzenegger pass Proposition 49 for after-school programs, Carona is being talked about as a possible Republican candidate for lieutenant governor alongside Schwarzenegger in 2006.

Now that we don’t have an El Toro airport to kick around anymore, a proposed tunnel through the Cleveland National Forest to link Riverside commuters with OC could be next year’s hot-button issue.

The project has the blessing of President Bush and the prospect of $1 billion in federal funding. But some residents are ambivalent about the plan, as is The Irvine Company, whose land the road would traverse. Environmentalists already are crying foul.




PERSON to watch: JOE DUNN

Few politicians in the past year did a better job of navigating California’s stormy political waters than state Sen. Joe Dunn, D-Santa Ana. And he enters 2003 with the wind to his back.

The flamboyant Dunn has been employing his trial-lawyer skills as chairman of the high-profile committee investigating price manipulation during the energy crisis.

Dunn has gone to Congress to testify about the energy mess, and summoned Ross Perot, among others, to testify before his own committee.

The jury’s still out on whether power producers engaged in widespread illegalities, as Dunn asserts, or simply exploited a flawed state system.

Despite awarding the state $1.8 billion in energy refunds, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has otherwise so far appeared to be more persuaded by the producers’ view of events.

But the fallout from the energy crisis and the Enron scandal already has produced scattered indictments and convictions, providing traction to Dunn’s efforts. And investigations and lawsuits continue.

Meanwhile, the hard-working Dunn has raised the bar on constituent service in Orange County.

He breezed to re-election in November in a district where he had scored an upset victory four years earlier. And the 43-year-old Dunn has already launched his campaign for attorney general in 2006.

,Rick Reiff

AGENCY to watch: GSA

The guessing games rage.

Will the former El Toro Marine base really become a Great Park, or just a prettified version of another masterplanned community? Will developers flock to bid on prime land in the heart of one of the world’s richest communities, or will they be scared away by onerous parkland demands and potential toxic liabilities?

Will the base remain dormant, with golf balls flying and weeds growing but little else going on? Or is there even a longshot possibility that the federal government will wind up retaining the land and preserving the possibility of a future airport?

The answers will unfold in 2003.

By April, Irvine is expected to finish its public hearings and certify its environmental report for the Great Park plan.

At that point, the General Services Administration, the federal government’s real estate broker acting as agent for the Navy, will take over. Remember the name Gordon Creed. He’s the administration’s assistant commissioner overseeing the expected land transfer.

Using its Web site and brochures, the administration is expected to market the 4,700-acre base in four to six separate parcels, giving developers the critical details they need to place bids in an online auction.

Irvine anticipates that by fall the sales will be completed and the base property will be transferred to the winning bidders; they will then deed over the parkland to Irvine.

Construction would begin in 2004 or 2005, with a 10-year buildout. The broad plan calls for leveraging residential and commercial development on 700 acres to support development of parks and other public uses on 3,000 acres (another 1,000 acres is already set aside for wildlife).

Newport Beach real estate consultant Richard Gollis of the Concord Group says whether the plan is feasible will depend on factors such as how many toxic substances the Navy leaves behind and how much off-site infrastructure developers will be required to pay for.

Some skeptics question whether the project can pencil out, but Irvine officials confidently predict the plan will work.

,Rick Reiff

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