51.1 F
Laguna Hills
Thursday, Mar 28, 2024
-Advertisement-

Estimates of the extent of rolling blackouts this summer are coming down

The threat of regular rolling blackouts, idle factories and lost productivity are big concerns for Orange County businesses now that summer is here.

But if the first three weeks of June are any indication, the next four months may not be as bad as experts first thought.

The availability of more power at lower prices coupled with energy conservation efforts could mean that California could squeak through the summer with fewer blackouts than previously anticipated.

“Our assessment is that there will be some supply shortage this summer”,but not a lot, said Ron Nunnally, director of federal regulation and contracts at Rosemead-based Southern California Edison.

In May, the Princton, N.J.-based North American Electric Reliability Council,a group made up of utilities, government agencies and power users,said that California consumers could face a total of 260 hours of power outages this summer. Now the group is backing away from the estimate.

“Our forecast came out on May 15,” said Tim Gallagher, manager technical services at the council. “Things have changed since then.”

With relatively mild weather, “260 hours of interruption may be on the higher side,” Nunnally said.

If the 260 hours of rolling blackouts does takes place, an individual consumer,be it a home or business,could expect to have outages totaling 26 hours during the four-month summer period. That would be an average of around three hours of power outages every two weeks.

With fewer blackouts, OC business could see even less darkness. So what changed the once gloomy picture?

On May 8, warmer-than-expected weather in California’s Central Valley resulted in the first power blackouts in two months as consumers switched on air conditioners. Southern California Edison imposed two rolling blackouts lasting about an hour that day.

Seeing how warm spring temperatures could rattle the state’s fragile power system led to more predications about a dark summer.

But since then, California’s weather has been better than what many had expected,despite last week’s heat in OC. There have been no power outages for almost a month and a half now.

In its May report, the North American Electric Reliability Council had projected peak power demand during summer to reach 47,703 megawatts, with a production shortfall of 5,500 megawatts.

“The highest that I have seen so far is 38,000 megawatts” the council’s Gallagher said. “The weather is cooler and the demand has just not picked up.”

So far this year, there have been six days of blackouts in California, including on May 8.

Consumption of power also has been less this year due to conservation efforts partly spurred by rate increases for customers of the state’s three utilities.

“People have suddenly started to get light bills that are 20% to 60% higher,” said Robert Michaels, professor of economics at California State University, Fullerton. Michaels has worked as a consultant for independent power producers and power marketers.

“All that you really need is a 1% to 2% decrease in consumption,” to lower the number of rolling blackouts, he said.

But talk of a better-than-expected summer doesn’t mean all of California’s power problems are over. A prolonged heat wave in July and August could easily push the number of blackouts to the high end of projections.

Still, last week was encouraging. With temperatures nearing the triple-digit mark in inland OC, the California Independent System Operator issued warnings of potential rolling blackouts. But the state was able to find plenty of power to meet demand.

But California continues to be heavily dependent on imports of power from other Western states such as Arizona as well as the Pacific Northwest. Lower rain and snowfall last winter could limit imports from the north, while desert states won’t have as much power to send to California when temperatures soar there.

“Almost 15% to 20% of the state’s power requirement is imported every year,” the council’s Gallagher said.

“This year, it could be down to 7% to 10%,” he said.

In 2000, imports declined by 28% because of higher power consumption the Western states and lower hydropower production in the Pacific Northwest. n

Want more from the best local business newspaper in the country?

Sign-up for our FREE Daily eNews update to get the latest Orange County news delivered right to your inbox!

-Advertisement-

Featured Articles

-Advertisement-
-Advertisement-
-Advertisement-
-Advertisement-

Related Articles

-Advertisement-
-Advertisement-