Economic recovery won’t be on the horizon until the end of next year, according to Chapman University’s annual economic forecast held Tuesday.

Most of the bloodletting in the county’s job losses and falling home prices have already hit in 2008, with expectations the declines will lessen in the coming quarters before hitting a bottom by the end of next year, according to the forecast.

Chapman economists James Doti and Esmael Adibi gave their national and local forecasts to a crowd of 1,200 at the Orange County Performing Arts Center in Costa Mesa.

The number of jobs in the county are projected to shrink by 9,000, or 0.6%, next year.

The county lost 35,000 jobs for the 12 months ending October for a 2.3% decline, according to government data.

Most of next year’s job losses will be in construction and finance as the engines that drove economic growth between 2003 and 2006 continue to fall from their peaks, according to Chapman.

Their weakness has spilled into other areas of the economy with manufacturing jobs also expected to decline.

But education, healthcare, government, tourism and professional and business services jobs are expected to show slight growth or hold steady, according to the forecast.

Fewer jobs in the county will have a negative impact on consumer confidence and spending.

The economists believe the chances of recovery will be hindered without the help of consumer spending, which has pulled the economy ahead after the last six recessions.

But consumer spending will be cutback in 2009 as people pay off debt and feel the effects of lower home and stock prices, which will be a concern.

The median home price in Orange County could fall by 7% in 2009, hitting a bottom by the end of next year, according to Chapman. This is better than the 21.6% that it fell by in 2008.

Falling homes prices will increasingly become more affordable to first time buyers, whose new demand for them will eventually help turn the market around, according to the forecast.